Two 6-7 teams have value as upset picks in Week 15.
The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are red-hot right now and I see value on them heading into a game with the Houston Texans. I also like the Indianapolis Colts on the road against the Denver Broncos.
Check out these NFL Week 15 upset picks.
NFL Week 15 upset picks
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Best bet: Dolphins moneyline (+130)
Call me crazy but I do not find the Houston Texans all that impressive for an 8-5 team.
Over the past five weeks, Houston is 2-3 and here are the results:
- Week 9 @ Jets: 21-13 loss
- Week 10 vs. Lions: 26-23 loss
- Week 11@ Cowboys: 34-10 win
- Week 12 vs. Titans: 32-27 NFL Week 15 upset picks: Back the Colts, Dolphins as underdogsloss
- Week 13 @ Jaguars: 23-20 win
The Texans have one somewhat respectable win over Dallas mixed in with some disappointing losses.
Miami, on the other hand, has been far more consistent since the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins have scored 30-plus points in three of the last five games, losing only once in that span (at Green Bay on Thanksgiving).
Tagovailoa is also cooking right now. He has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his past four games. He threw for 288-plus yards in each of those contests.
C.J. Stroud has been much less impressive over that same timeframe. He has a 4:5 TD-to-INT ratio.
I’ll take the underdog price tag on the side with all the momentum heading into Week 15.
Key stat: Miami is 4-1 over its past five games.
Week 15 upset predictions
Colts moneyline (+180): I don’t feel as bullish about picking Anthony Richardson and the Colts, but they have been competitive in most games this season.
Indianapolis has only lost three games by more than a touchdown, and those outings were against some of the league’s best squads (Lions, Bills, Vikings).
In fact, Detroit, Buffalo and Minnesota have combined for just six losses this entire season.
Richardson continues to be the least accurate QB in the NFL but his duel-threat ability has been enough to make up for it on most occasions.
Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos continue to improve as the season goes on but something about this screams “trap game” to me
Denver’s defence is fresh off allowing Jameis Winston to throw for 497 yards and four touchdowns. Indy’s offence could be in for a big-time performance.
Picks made at 3:04 p.m. ET on 12/09/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.