It’s an AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers.
The pregame narrative: Isiah Pacheco looked strong in his return to action last week, and I expect him to clear a modest rushing yards total. In the receiving game, DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Palmer have my attention.
Check out my Chargers vs. Chiefs prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 8.
Chargers vs. Chiefs prop picks
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Best Bet: Pacheco over 50.5 rushing yards (-120)
Welcome back, Mr. Pacheco.
In his return from an ankle injury — suffered in Week 2 — Pacheco galloped for 44 yards on just seven carries. He showed more explosiveness than teammate Kareem Hunt has displayed all season.
Pacheco was a bell-cow tailback when the season began, but Hunt wasn’t on the team at that time. Although Hunt will likely remain involved, Pacheco’s opportunities should tick up after his successful return.
And a matchup against the Chargers is a nice spot to back Pacheco.
L.A. allows the fewest points per game, but its run defence isn’t nearly as daunting. The Chargers rank 23rd in yards per attempt (4.6) and 12th in success rate (37.9%).
Pacheco only had a 37% snap share last week. He could easily double that on Sunday night, and his carry count should grow, too.
Key stat: Since the start of the 2023 season, Pacheco has cashed this bet in 15 of 21 games.
Quick picks
Hopkins anytime TD (+225): This is a pretty nice price to ride with Hopkins, who’s seeing some grade-A opportunities to score for the Chiefs.
Again, the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defence in the NFL (15.7 PPG). But Hopkins is a go-to guy in the red zone, and I’m buying the opportunity.
Over KC’s past five games, Hopkins has …
- 33 targets
- 24 catches
- 5 targets inside the 5-yard line
- 3 TDs
Hopkins has seen a target inside the five-yard line in four of those five matchups. It doesn’t get much better than that.
He’s coming off a nine-target week, which matched Hopkins’ highest total since joining the Chiefs.
Palmer over 34.5 receiving yards (-120): Ladd McConkey is banged up, having logged three limited practices and earning a “questionable” injury designation for this game. Even if McConkey plays, it’s possible that Justin Herbert won’t be able to lean on his top target as much.
Enter, Palmer.
Since Week 6, Palmer has averaged 43.0 receiving yards and cashed this bet in six of eight games.
The Chiefs allowed 340 passing yards to Aidan O’Connell last week and 263 yards to Bryce Young the week before. Justin Herbert is far better than both of those QBs, and Palmer should benefit.
Picks made at 4:30 p.m. ET 12/07/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.