Kevin Durant is out again for the Phoenix Suns, who’ll face an uphill battle against the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: I like Miami to win tonight as the backbone of my +240 SGP. In the prop market, look for Bradley Beal and Tyler Herro to contribute for their respective squads.
Check out my Suns vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 7.
Suns vs. Heat predictions
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Parlay: Heat moneyline + Beal over 17.5 points + Herro over 4.5 rebounds (+240)
Heat moneyline (-240): If both teams were at full strength, I’d have a tough time backing Miami regardless of where this game was being played. With Durant out, though, it’s a pretty easy call.
Phoenix is 1-7 without Durant this year, with the lone win coming against the Utah Jazz — as 5.5-point favourites.
The Suns have played some strong teams without their star forward … but they also lost to the New Orleans Pelicans (5-18) on Thursday.
Miami, meanwhile, is 4-1 in its past five home games. The Heat trounced the Los Angeles Lakers, 134-93, last time out at Kaseya Center.
SGP legs
Beal over 17.5 points (-182): Even though I don’t like the Suns to win, someone is going to have to get buckets with Durant on the bench.
Devin Booker is in a nice groove, scoring 26-plus points in six straight games. But I like Beal to put up a solid point total on Saturday.
In three games played without Durant this year, Beal has scored 24-plus points each time. Dating back to last season, he’s cleared the 20-point mark in six straight without KD.
Given that Beal averages 18.0 PPG, he’s a fair pick to hit this over any game. But his chances are much better due to Durant’s injury.
Herro over 4.5 rebounds (-230): Without Durant or Jusuf Nurkic, the Suns are down their top two rebounders tonight.
At 6-foot-5, Herro has enough size from the backcourt to make an impact on the glass.
Herro is averaging 5.2 rebounds per game this year, cashing this bet in 14/20 matchups.
Even if this game is a blowout, I’m not worried about Herro having enough opportunities to cash this bet.
He’s played fewer than 30 minutes just three times this year, and he went over 4.5 rebounds in each of those games.
Picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 12/07/24.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.