I am featuring two bets at plus odds for this weekend in the Premier League.
The pregame narrative: Bournemouth came off a big victory earlier in the week and I believe it can keep rolling against Ipswich Town on Sunday. Before that, I like the over between Aston Villa and Southampton.
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EPL Matchday 15 picks
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Best Bet: Bournemouth to win (+108)
Bournemouth continues to rise in the rankings with astonishing victories over upper-class opponents.
Most recently, the Cherries claimed a 1-0 victory over a strong Tottenham club at home grounds on Thursday but easily could’ve won by a bigger margin.
Relentless in attack, Andoni Iraola’s squad has generated more than 2.0 expected goals (xG) in four of its last five matches.
The trio of Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo and Marcus Tavernier has been exceptional in creating scoring chances for striker Evanilson, who has become a force since coming over from Portuguese side Porto in the summer.
The defensive backline — which recently held the Spurs scoreless — is an improved unit from seasons past and should have little trouble in this match.
Now, Bournemouth hits the road to face a club that is destined for relegation.
Ipswich is dead-last in touches in the opponent’s box, recording 25 fewer than the next team.
Kieran McKenna’s strategy to build from the back spells disaster against a side that aggressively presses high up the pitch.
Defensively, they are tied for the second-worst xG conceded at 28.8, according to Fotmob.com.
A squad comprised of players from the second division, Ipswich doesn’t possess the quality to hang with the big boys.
I say there’s value in picking the Cherries to secure an away win against a weak opponent.
Key stat: Ipswich hasn’t scored in its last two matches, generating less than 0.60 xG to Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.
Quick pick
Aston Villa/Southampton over 3.5 goals (+112): This matchup has potential for plenty of scoring.
The Villians are trending up after a confidence-boosting 3-1 win over Brentford on Wednesday to snap an eight-game winless streak.
Led by Ollie Watkins, Villa’s attack is a lethal unit which can puncture defences on open-play and set-piece plays.
Villa has banged in six goals from set-piece play this season — tied for second-most with Everton.
On the other end, Southampton has allowed the second-most goals on set-pieces, at eight.
The Saints are the league’s worst defensive team, with the highest xG allowed (33.3) through 14 matches.
Offensively, however, Southampton posted over 1.0 xG in its last three matches including a two-goal performance off table-leaders Liverpool.
This season, six of its matches have had four or more goals.
In desperate need of points, I expect the Saints to press high in a negative game script and leave the back-line prone to counterattacks.
Southampton are deploying 29-year-old backup keeper Joe Lumley, who has played in only two Premier League matches.
With that said, this has the recipe for an action-packed contest.
Picks made at 4:12 p.m. on 12/06/24.
