Mike Evans and George Pickens headline this week’s touchdown picks.
The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fighting for their respective divisions and I expect both teams’ top wideout to produce. Elsewhere, I like Tyrone Tracy Jr. to score for a second consecutive game.
Check out the best NFL Week 14 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 14 TD picks
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Best bet: Evans anytime TD (-121)
There were some concerns Evans might not play this week after missing back-to-back practices with a calf injury.
But the veteran wideout was back on the field Friday, which is a strong indication he’ll suit up for Sunday’s bout against the Las Vegas Raiders.
And Tampa Bay desperately needs him in the mix. Evans returned to form last weekend against the New York Giants, hauling in eight of 12 targets for 118 yards and a score.
No one has consistently found the end zone like Evans over the last decade. He has 101 touchdowns since the 2014-15 season and has 20 in 26 games since Baker Mayfield joined the Bucs last season.
Sunday’s meeting against Las Vegas presents a golden opportunity for Evans to add to that total.
The Raiders have allowed 29.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.
Key stat: Las Vegas has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in its last five games and has the third-worst dropback EPA per play in that span, per RBSDM.com.
Quick picks
Pickens anytime TD (+110): If last week was anything to go by, Sunday’s matchup in Pittsburgh could be a shootout.
The Steelers secured a 44-38 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals while the Cleveland Browns lost a 41-32 thriller to the Denver Broncos.
Pickens was held to just four catches and 48 yards when these teams met a few weeks ago. But that game was contested in a blizzard, and Pittsburgh attempted 34 rushes to just 21 passes.
The Steelers have the second-highest rush rate in football (51.21%) but that’s still a massive outlier.
Cleveland’s secondary is mediocre at best, and Pickens should see a much higher volume of targets — especially in the red zone.
Pickens’ 16 red zone targets are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL.
Tracy anytime TD (-108): The Giants have to start scoring touchdowns at some point, right?
New York averages a league-low 15.3 points per game, so backing any player on that roster to score can be daunting.
But Tracy has been the team’s best rushing option and has a grade-A matchup.
The New Orleans Saints rank 30th in defensive EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate. They’re also tied for allowing the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.3).
Tracy found the end zone on Thanksgiving and has 14 of New York’s 19 red zone rush attempts since taking over the starting job in Week 5.
Picks made at 4:36 p.m. ET on 12/06/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.