Two of the NBA’s top defensive teams meet up in San Francisco on Friday night as the Golden State Warriors host the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The pregame narrative: I’m all about the unders for tonight’s matchup, including a pair of prop bets on Anthony Edwards and Jonathan Kuminga.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 6.
Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions
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Parlay: Under 224.5 points + Edwards under 26.5 points + Kuminga under 5.5 rebounds (+240)
Under 224.5 points (-205): Last year, the Timberwolves’ success was largely built on their lockdown defence, which posted an NBA-best defensive rating.
This year’s squad had some shaky nights on defence early on, but things are changing.
- Each of Minnesota’s past three opponents was held to 92 points or fewer.
- Unders are 5-2 for Minnesota since Nov. 21.
- Six of the T-Wolves’ past seven games went under 224.5 points.
Golden State has also been a defensively-minded squad, ranking fourth in the NBA in defensive rating this year.
Unders are 2-0 when the Warriors are on a back-to-back, and four of the past five meetings between these teams finished below this total.
SGP legs
Edwards under 26.5 points (-195): Edwards’ scoring success this year has been built on some explosive production from the 3-point line. But that’s what Golden State is best at defending.
The Warriors allow the fewest 3s per game to opposing shooting guards (2.6), according to Betting Pros, as well as the lowest 3PT% to opponents as a whole (32.8%).
Edwards has been fantastic beyond the arc this season, canning 4.5 threes per game at a 42.3% clip.
But if his 3-point production is capped, the rest of his scoring should be, too.
Edwards has gone under this number in eight of his past 12 games, averaging 24.1 PPG in that span. He’s also been under in five of seven matchups versus Golden State since the 2022-23 season.
Kuminga under 5.5 rebounds (-190): At 6-foot-8 and 210 pounds, Kuminga is a bit undersized for a frontcourt player. And he rarely imposes his will as a rebounder.
- Kuminga averaged a career-high 4.8 rebounds last year and is down to 4.3 RPG so far in 2024-25.
- He’s gone under 5.5 rebounds in 15/19 games.
Minnesota is a tough matchup for Kuminga to buck that trend. The T-Wolves allow the sixth-fewest rebounds overall and the second-fewest to power forwards.
Kuminga has gone under 5.5 rebounds in six straight games against Minnesota.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 12/06/24.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.