From conference championship week, I’m targeting two ATS picks and a player prop as my college football best bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing the Oregon Ducks (as favourites) and Marshall Thundering Herd (as underdogs) to cover in their respective games.
Check out the best college football picks and predictions for the action on Saturday, Dec. 7.
College football picks
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Oregon -3.5 (-106)
I’m willing to be wrong about the Penn State Nittany Lions, who’ve faced a pretty soft schedule en route to a Big Ten championship appearance.
Penn State only has one win against a ranked opponent (No. 21 Illinois), and it blew a 10-point lead at home against its toughest foe, Ohio State.
That OSU matchup was Penn State’s only game as an underdog, and the Nittany Lions failed to cover a +3 spread in a 20-13 defeat.
Oregon, like Penn State, is just 6-6 ATS. But the Ducks are accustomed to facing massive spreads.
- In their 11 games as favourites, the Ducks laid 13.5 points or more each time.
- Oregon was a 3.5-point home underdog against Ohio State and won, 32-31.
Key stat: The Ducks have covered a -3.5 spread nine times, and I think the country’s No. 1 team can do it again.
Quick pick
Marshall +5.5 (-110): Most folks will be focused on the Power Four conference championship games, but there are interesting plays elsewhere, too.
In the Sun Belt championship, look for the Thundering Herd to at least keep things close against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Marshall is 10-1-1 ATS, covering this number in nine straight games. The Herd won back-to-back games as road underdogs to muscle their way into the conference title match.
Louisiana has had a better year, but starting quarterback Ben Woolridge is out with a collarbone injury.
The offence was fine with Chandler Fields under centre last week, but I don’t think the Ragin’ Cajuns should be laying this many points with a defence that ranks 132nd in rushing success rate, per gameonpaper.com.
Picks made at 3:29 p.m. on 12/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.