From conference championship week, I’m targeting two ATS picks and a player prop as my college football best bets.
The pregame narrative: The Arizona State Sun Devils have a bulldog of a runner in Cam Skattebo, and I expect a huge performance from him against the Iowa State Cyclones. I’m also backing the Oregon Ducks (as favourites) and Marshall Thundering Herd (as underdogs) to cover in their respective games.
Check out the best college football picks and predictions for the action on Saturday, Dec. 7.
College football picks
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Best Bet: Skattebo over 119.5 rushing yards (-107)
Recent productivity, a key injury, and a compelling matchup all contribute to my belief that Skattebo can smash his yardage total in the Big 12 championship game.
- Skattebo has 145+ rushing yards in 6/11 games, including five games since Oct. 1.
- Arizona State’s top wideout, Jordyn Tyson, is out.
- Iowa State’s defence is better at stopping the pass than the run.
Skattebo’s rushing production alone is enough to make this a compelling prop. The Sun Devils’ offence runs through him, which has been particularly evident over the past two weeks.
Against BYU and Arizona, Skattebo amassed 324 rush yards and six TDs.
Tyson’s injury is a key aspect, though, because he’s the Sun Devils’ go-to receiver — and it’s frankly not close. Tyson has 75 catches and 1,101 yards, while no other WR has more than 30 catches or 300 yards.
I doubt the Sun Devils can abandon the passing game altogether, but Tyson’s absence will mean even more plays should be funnelled to their standout tailback.
And keep in mind that the defensive matchup should encourage Arizona State to run the ball, too.
Iowa State is allowing the third-fewest passing yards in the country (156.9/game) and the second-lowest completion percentage (51.9%).
Key stat: Skattebo is averaging 127.1 rush yards per game and has cleared this number in five of his past seven games.
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Quick picks
Oregon -3.5 (-118): I’m willing to be wrong about the Penn State Nittany Lions, who’ve faced a pretty soft schedule en route to a Big Ten championship appearance.
Penn State only has one win against a ranked opponent (No. 21 Illinois), and it blew a 10-point lead at home against its toughest foe, Ohio State.
That OSU matchup was Penn State’s only game as an underdog, and the Nittany Lions failed to cover a +3 spread in a 20-13 defeat.
Oregon, like Penn State, is just 6-6 ATS. But the Ducks are accustomed to facing massive spreads.
- In their 11 games as favourites, the Ducks laid 13.5 points or more each time.
- Oregon was a 3.5-point home underdog against Ohio State and won, 32-31.
The Ducks have covered a -3.5 spread nine times, and I think the country’s No. 1 team can do it again.
Marshall +5.5 (-109): Most folks will be focused on the Power Four conference championship games, but there are interesting plays elsewhere, too.
In the Sun Belt championship, look for the Thundering Herd to at least keep things close against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns.
Marshall is 10-1-1 ATS, covering this number in nine straight games. The Herd won back-to-back games as road underdogs to muscle their way into the conference title match.
Louisiana has had a better year, but starting quarterback Ben Woolridge is out with a collarbone injury.
The offence was fine with Chandler Fields under centre last week, but I don’t think the Ragin’ Cajuns should be laying this many points with a defence that ranks 132nd in rushing success rate, per gameonpaper.com.
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 12/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.