The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions clash in a crucial divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Green Bay will need to throw the ball to keep up with Detroit and I expect Jayden Reed to have a big game. On the opposite side, Jameson Williams has value to get catches.
Check out my Packers vs. Lions prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 6.
Packers vs. Lions prop picks
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Best Bet: Reed over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
Reed has been quiet in recent games, but the Packers led for large chunks of them.
Green Bay is a 3.5-point underdog and Jordan Love has opted to sling the ball to his most reliable downfield threat in close games.
Reed is averaging above this mark in close games:
- Final margin of 0-7 points: 3.3 rec, 64.6 yards per game.
- Final margin of 8-14 points: 4 rec, 68.5 yards per game.
- Final margin of 15+ points: 4.3 rec, 34.7 yards per game.
It’s also worth noting that Reed caught five passes for 113 yards against the Lions in Week 9.
It can be argued that Detroit hasn’t faced an explosive offence since it visited Green Bay in November when it allowed 273 yards through the air.
Opposing wide receivers have had their way against the Lions’ secondary. The unit is allowing 182.6 yards per game to WRs which is the second-most in the NFL, per CBS Sports.
Detroit’s pass rush took another blow with Malcolm Rodriguez now on the injured reverse, joining Alex Anzalone and Aidan Hutchison. This should give Love more time to scan and launch the ball downfield.
Weather also won’t be a factor as this game takes place indoors.
Key stat: Reed has 50-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games vs. teams in the bottom 10 for receiving yards allowed to WRs.
Quick pick
Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions (-103): Williams has been a reliable weapon for Jared Goff all season.
He has caught four or more passes in his last three games and has seen a steady target share.
The wideout has flourished on home turf this season.
- Home averages: 7.0 targets, 4.2 receptions, 86.4 receiving yards
- Road averages: 4.0 targets, 2.6 receptions, 39.6 receiving yards
Green Bay is above-average at stopping the run, allowing just 4.2 yards per rush (seventh-best in the NFL).
With the division at stake and a potential for a shootout, Goff should continue to target his best deep threat.
I like this play even more if Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander (knee, questionable) misses this game.
Picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET 12/04/2024.
