I’ve got three prop recommendations from Wednesday’s five-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Dyson Daniels isn’t the biggest name, but he’s in a great spot to clear a modest point total against the Milwaukee Bucks. Elsewhere, back Anthony Davis and fade Julius Randle.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 4.
NBA prop bets
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best bet: Daniels over 11.5 points (-117)
Daniels is having a breakout season with the Atlanta Hawks.
The third-year guard has found himself in a starting role after coming off the bench for the New Orleans Pelicans in his rookie and sophomore campaigns. Unsurprisingly, the increased minutes have led to more scoring.
- 2023-24: 5.8 PPG, 5.1 FGA/game
- 2024-25: 13.9 PPG, 13.1 FGA/game
Daniels isn’t lighting the league on fire, but he’s been consistent and draws a great matchup.
The Bucks are allowing the third-most points per game to opposing shooting guards (24.75), according to Fantasy Pros.
When Milwaukee traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard two seasons ago, it brought immediate offensive upside but severely hampered their defence, especially on the perimeter.
This season, the Bucks allow opponents to make 3s at the 10th-best clip in the NBA (36.6%).
Daniels takes over 30% of his shots from beyond the arc and he’ll have an outsized opportunity to fill the basket on Wednesday.
Key stat: Daniels has cleared this mark in nine of his last 13 games.
Quick picks
Davis over 37.5 points and rebounds (-124): This is a monstrous number to clear but Davis is having a monster season.
The Los Angeles Lakers big man ranks seventh in the NBA in both points (27.8) and rebounds (11.5) per game. That nets out to a combined average of 39.2 points and rebounds per night.
He’s cleared this mark in six of his past 10 games and gets an exploitable matchup against the Miami Heat.
Miami allows the fourth-most rebounds per game to centres and ranks a middling 16th in opponent mid-range shooting percentage, per Cleaning the Glass.
Davis takes 44% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 90th percentile for all NBA players.
Randle under 1.5 threes (-130): Randle isn’t a 3-point shooter.
In his first season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he’s attempted just 4.6 threes a night. He has also been cold lately. In his past six games, Randle is 1-5 against this line while shooting 25% from beyond the arc.
Making matters worse, Randle is playing a Los Angeles Clippers team that excels at defending the perimeter.
L.A. owns the league’s third-best 3-point defence (34.2%) while surrendering the 11th-fewest 3-point attempts (37.2) per game.
Picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 12/04/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.