I’ve got prop bets on Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic when the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors tonight.
The pregame narrative: Both superstars draw favourable matchups and will be the focal points on offence this evening. I think both players will score but am backing Curry and am fading Jokic.
Check out my Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks for Dec. 3.
Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks
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Best Bet: Curry over 23.5 points (-125)
Let’s get this out of the way: Curry’s scoring has been way down this season.
The future Hall of Famer is putting up 22.5 points a night, which is on pace to be the lowest mark since his 2010-11 sophomore season (excluding years where he played fewer than 30 games).
But Curry is also playing just 29.9 minutes a night, which is nearly five minutes below his career average.
The sharpshooter has still been efficient, especially from deep, cashing in at a 43.4% rate from beyond the arc. And with Golden State staring down a five-game losing streak, I expect Steve Kerr to give his best player plenty of run.
Even with his reduced role, Curry has cleared or came close to this line often:
- 24+ points in 6/15 games (two games with 23 points)
- 23+ points in 6/8 games where he’s played 30+ minutes
The Nuggets lack depth and are a mediocre defensive team, sitting 19th in defensive rating (114.2) while allowing the 10th-most 3s per game (13.8).
I expect Curry to comfortably clear this mark as long as he plays north of 30 minutes.
Key stat: Denver allows the 10th most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantays Pros.
Quick pick
Jokic under 1.5 threes (+115): Fading Jokic while he’s shooting a career-best 50.8% from deep might seem ill-advised, but I think it makes sense here.
The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in 10 of 15 games but he’s also finished with exactly two 3s on five occasions.
And Jokic is only attempting 4.3 threes a night, so he’ll have to remain hyper-efficient to clear this number.
The Warriors are the league’s best 3-point defending team — holding opponents to a 32.7% rate — but are the worst at containing the midrange. Opponents are shooting 46.3% from that area of the court, which is the highest in the NBA.
Denver’s offensive game plan should focus on Jokic getting inside and doing damage off the pick-and-roll, not from beyond the arc.
Jokic has gone under this number in five of his last seven against the Warriors.
Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET 12/03/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.