Settle in for conference championship week in the world of college football, where plenty of trophies — and College Football Playoff spots — are on the line.
The latest: Ohio State’s shocking loss to Michigan means Penn State will be Oregon’s foe in the Big Ten title match. Elsewhere, the Big 12 championship and ACC championship both appear to be win-and-in battles within the playoff landscape.
Check out our college football betting guide to get ready for conference championship weekend.
College football betting guide: Conference championships
A lot of really good college football teams will be watching from the couch this weekend, awaiting their bowl season fate.
Ohio State, Tennessee and Notre Dame are among the ones who’ll factor into the CFP field no matter what. Others are likely hoping SMU beats Clemson (ACC) and Boise State beats UNLV (Mountain West) to simplify the possibilities.
Six of the nine conference title games have a projected total of 50-plus points. There should be plenty of exciting action for bettors to sink their teeth into.
Go to full NCAA football betting markets
Key college football matchups
No. 19 UNLV Rebels vs. No. 10 Boise State Broncos
- Boise State won, 29-24, on the road against UNLV in October as a 4-point favourite. The Broncos have won all seven head-to-head matchups and are 2-0 ATS against UNLV in the past two seasons.
- Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty had 128 yards and a touchdown against UNLV in October, but that’s actually a down game for him. The Rebels held Jeanty to his lowest yardage total against an FBS opponent this year, as well as his lowest yards/carry (3.9) since September 2023.
- Boise’s lone loss came by a field goal against now-No. 1 Oregon. All 11 of the Broncos’ wins have come by four-plus points, and their only ATS losses were in games in which they were favoured by a double-digit margin. Meanwhile, UNLV’s two losses came by just eight total points.
No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils
- Arizona State went 5-0 ATS and straight up in November, winning every game by four or more points.
- Iowa State is known as a disciplined team, averaging the third-fewest penalty yards per game (29.3). Defensively, the Cyclones allow the third-fewest pass yards (156.9/game) and the second-lowest completion percentage (51.9%).
- The Cyclones have only been underdogs once this season. Back in September, they beat the Iowa Hawkeyes, 20-19, as 3-point dogs on the road.
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Texas Longhorns
- Texas’ only loss of the year came against Georgia (30-15) on Oct. 19. The Longhorns, who were 4-point home favourites, trailed 23-0 at halftime and briefly benched quarterback Quinn Ewers before bringing him back in.
- Georgia almost suffered a calamitous upset last week as a 17-point favourite against Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs clawed for a 44-42 win in eight overtimes … marking the second-longest game in NCAA history.
- Georgia is 3-9 ATS this season, winning straight up in its lone matchup as an underdog (at Texas).
- Both teams have an impact running back who’s questionable to play: Trevor Etienne (UGA) and Jaydon Blue (UT).
No. 18 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 8 SMU Mustangs
- Clemson is set to be an underdog for the first time since its season opener against Georgia. In that game, the Tigers lost 34-3 as 10.5-point dogs.
- SMU lost by a field goal at home against BYU in September. Since then, the Mustangs have won nine in a row and are 7-2 ATS.
- Both SMU (39.2 PPG) and Clemson (35.7 PPG) are among the country’s top-15 scoring offences. But overs are just 3-8 in Tigers games this season.
No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks
- Penn State and Oregon are both 6-6 ATS, and they’ve both hit the under in seven of their 12 games.
- On Nov. 2, Penn State lost by a touchdown at home against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions were 3-point underdogs, and it was the only time they’ve been underdogs this season.
- Nine of Oregon’s 12 opponents have scored fewer than 20 points. The Ducks allow the seventh-fewest yards per game in the NCAA (283.9).
- Based on ESPN’s calculation of strength of schedule, Penn State ranked 36th this season and Oregon ranked 60th.
College football betting guide: Players to watch
RB Cameron Skattebo (Arizona State): Iowa State has one of the fiercest pass defences in the country, but that probably doesn’t faze Skattebo and Arizona State.
The Sun Devils run their offence through Skattebo, who has 14 total touchdowns in his past seven games.
And his per-game averages in that span are stellar:
- 23.0 carries
- 137.9 rush yards
- 6.0 yards/rush
Arizona State runs the ball 60.2% of the time, which is the 13th-highest percentage in the NCAA. The Sun Devils should lean on Skattebo heavily on Saturday.
QB Darian Mensah (Tulane): The Tulane Green Wave usually run the ball a lot, but Mensah has proven he can contribute splash plays when needed.
The sophomore quarterback leads the AAC in yards per attempt (9.6) and completion rate (65.6%).
Mensah also has multiple TD passes in three straight games and is coming off his third 300-yard performance of the season.
The Army Black Knights allow the 11th-fewest rush yards per game (103.0), so Mensah might need to carry Tulane’s offence.
NCAAF national championship odds
Betting trends
- Tulane lost a puzzler at home last week, falling by 10 against Memphis as a 12.5-point favourite. The Green Wave had been 7-1 ATS before that, winning eight in a row by eight or more points. Army, meanwhile, is 1-4 ATS in its past five games.
- The Ohio Bobcats haven’t won the Mid-American Conference championship since 1968, and they’ll look to end the futility against their arch-rivals. The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks beat Ohio by 10 points at home this year after a 14-point win in the Battle of the Bricks rivalry a season ago.
- In the Sun Belt, the Marshall Thundering Herd take their 10-1-1 ATS record into a showdown with the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana ranks third in the country in yards per play (6.9), while Marshall is coming off back-to-back road wins as an underdog.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.