Two matches with clubs from Manchester are featured in a rare mid-week matchday in the Premier League.
The pregame narrative: Arsenal is on a rampage and I expect them to continue rolling against Manchester United on Wednesday. Before that, I like Nottingham Forest to keep a struggling Manchester City side within striking distance.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 14 picks.
EPL Matchday 14 picks
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Best Bet: Arsenal -1.25 (-104)
Arsenal is in immaculate form and I want to continue riding the momentum.
The 5-2 stomping of West Ham saw five different Gunners score in the first half, including two penalties and a header from a corner kick.
Captain Martin Odegaard is fully healthy, and his reinsertion into the starting 11 has had a big impact on both ends of the pitch.
Since April, Arsenal has been undefeated when the Norwegian midfielder is in the lineup.
His presence gives Bukayo Saka the freedom to find spaces on the flanks and take on opposing backs in one-on-one situations.
This presents problems for a Manchester United team that is still adjusting to a new system.
Ruben Amorim’s former side, Sporting Lisbon, suffered a 5-1 beatdown to Arsenal in the Champions League just a few weeks ago. The Gunners ran circles all over the same 3-4-2-1 formation and scored five times on 3.89 expected goals while creating five big chances.
A 4-0 victory against Everton on Sunday was Amorim’s first at Old Trafford. Despite netting four goals, they generated just 1.07 expected goals — per FotMob — and benefitted from a couple of clumsy errors.
United be without key players Kobbie Mainoo and centre-back Lisandro Martinez for this match.
The Gunners are seemingly back in form and look to narrow the nine-point gap from the top spot with a comfortable victory over the Red Devils.
Key stat: Arsenal won its last three matches overall with a margin of three or more goals.
Quick pick
Nottingham Forest +1.5 (-121): Manchester City are winless in its last seven games in all competitions as the reigning English champions were lifeless in its 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday.
The Citizens are getting exposed without Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, who was the driving force of the entire squad.
Without him, City’s midfield has looked disjointed and is susceptible to more final-third box entries and counterattacks.
Mateo Kovacic and John Stones, both with defensive midfield experience, are sidelined for Wednesday’s match with injuries.
In its last four league matches, City has conceded 10 goals while scoring just two.
Nottingham Forest, once a relegation contender, has since exceeded expectations by landing in the top half of the table with 22 points through 13 matches.
Earlier in the season, the Tricky Trees brought Liverpool to its lone defeat of the season and held formidable foes Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton to draws.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad is great at limiting chances by clogging the central areas of the pitch and disrupting the opposition.
Forest owns the second-lowest non-penalty xG in the Premier League (12.39), according to theanalyst.com.
With a respectable 3-2-1 away record this season, Forest can feel they can make it a competitive game at the Etihad.
Perhaps this is where City snaps its winless streak, but I don’t expect it to come by a multi-goal margin.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 12/03/24.
