Two NFC teams headline these NFL Week 14 upset picks.
The pregame narrative: A struggling Kirk Cousins returns to Minnesota and I expect his Atlanta Falcons to leave with a win. Later on, back the Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills.
Check out these NFL Week 14 upset picks.
NFL Week 14 upset picks
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Best bet: Falcons moneyline (+185)
The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent this season, going from ice-cold to red-hot and back again in a matter of 12 games:
- Falcons Weeks 1-3: 1-2 record, 16.3 PPG
- Falcons Weeks 4-9: 5-1 record, 28.6 PPG
- Falcons Weeks 10-13: 0-3 record, 12.0 PPG
We’ve seen this team’s offensive ceiling and it’s impressive. But the floor is ugly and I’m hoping Cousins hit rock bottom last week when he threw four interceptions in a 17-10 loss.
There’s nowhere to go but up after a performance like that and now Cousins has a chance to stick it to his old team, which has been winning a lot, but by thin margins.
Minnesota has a 10-2 record but I’m getting whiffs of fraudulence up north.
The squad is 5-2 since its bye and four of those wins were decided by one score. That includes a 12-7 win over Mac Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 30-27 overtime win against the downtrodden Chicago Bears.
The Vikings are also a middling 15th in RBSDM.com’s offensive EPA per play since their bye and are averaging just 21.8 PPG during their win streak.
The Falcons are on a three-game skid but still lead the NFC South. I think they can stop the bleeding with a statement win on the road.
Key stat: Atlanta is 3-2 on the road this season
Week 14 upset predictions
Rams moneyline (+170): I know what you’re thinking: The Bills are red-hot and Josh Allen seems destined for his first MVP award.
Well, maybe both of those things are true but this is shaping up to be a classic letdown spot on the road.
Buffalo is 10-2 with a perfect 6-0 home record. The squad is an impressive 4-2 away from Highmark Stadium but lost handily against its two toughest opponents (Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans).
The Rams have won five of seven following their Week 6 bye and are getting surprisingly stout defensively play without Aaron Donald in the mix.
Buffalo can light up the scoreboard but Matthew Stafford can keep pace, especially since Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are all healthy.
Picks made at 1:24 p.m. ET on 12/02/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.