The Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos square off on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Courtland Sutton has been a reception machine in the latter part of the season so I’m getting behind him at plus money. Nick Chubb also has value in the running game.
Check out my Browns vs. Broncos prop picks for Monday Night Football on Dec. 2.
Browns vs. Broncos prop picks
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Best Bet: Sutton over 5.5 receptions (+118)
Bo Nix has found chemistry with Sutton in recent weeks.
- From Weeks 1-7: 21 receptions, 277 yards
- From Weeks 8-12: 36 receptions, 467 yards
From Week 8 onward, Sutton is 5-0 against this line. Cleveland’s defence is nothing special as it allows the 15th-most passing yards per game (214.4).
Denver is throwing a ton right now as Nix has attempted 175 passes in the last five weeks and Sutton has claimed 48 of those targets (27.4% target share).
There aren’t many reliable weapons on the Broncos’ offence so it makes sense Nix has relied on his best skill player in the passing game.
Key stat: Sutton is averaging 9.6 targets per game since Week 8.
Quick pick
Chubb over 54.5 rushing yards (-129): I’ll be upfront, this is a terrible matchup for Chubb — but I can’t get past his volume.
Chubb has only played in five games and he already leads the Brown’s running room in attempts with 73. That’s 14.6 per game and 12 more than Jerome Ford who’s played in nine games.
It was always clear who Cleveland’s top back is when everyone is healthy but I don’t know if anyone saw this volume for Chubb immediately following his return from a double-knee injury.
As the weeks go on, the star tailback’s volume should increase. He ran a season-high 20 times last week in a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
As long as this isn’t a blowout out of the gates for Denver, I’m sure Chubb will at the very least be in the mid-teens for rushing attempts.
This modest line will require one or two big runs or a lot of consistently good runs and I believe Chubb can provide one or the other, if not both.
Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET 12/01/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.