The Los Angeles Clippers host the Denver Nuggets in Sunday’s NBA nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has been chugging without Kawhi Leonard and I like it to cover an alternate spread at home. Player props on Nikola Jokic and James Harden round out this ticket.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 1.
Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions
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Parlay: Clippers +7.5 + Jokic over 7.5 assists + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Harden over 1.5 threes (+420)
Clippers +7.5 (-245): L.A. has been without its biggest star all season but that hasn’t stopped the squad from being competitive.
The Clippers are 12-9 on the season with a stellar 14-7 ATS record (fourth-best in the NBA). That includes a 4-2 ATS record as home underdogs, which they are tonight.
Denver is a competent team but it doesn’t look like a title contender right now.
The Nuggets are 10-7 and have lost four of their last seven. The roster lacks depth and Jokic can’t do it all with Aaron Gordon injured and Jamal Murray underperforming.
Los Angeles has won six of its last eight, covering this number in seven of those games. I expect the Clips to keep things close at home.
SGP legs
Jokic over 7.5 assists (-230): Jokic has one hand on the MVP trophy and it’s only December.
The Serbian superstar ranks fourth in scoring (29.7), first in rebounding (13.1) and second in assists (10.6) while shooting a clinical 53.4% from deep — but more on that later.
I want to get in on Jokic’s assist prop against the Clippers for a few reasons.
Firstly, he’s living at this number on a nightly basis, clearing this number in nine of his last 11 games with at least seven assists in each of those contests.
And Jokic has seen success against L.A., going over this mark in five of his last six games (though he is 0-1 against this line vs. Clippers this season)
Jokic over 1.5 threes (-124): It’s kind of unfair that Jokic just decided to make it rain this season.
He’s averaging career-highs in 3-point makes (2.2) and attempts (4.1) per game and is shooting nearly 14% better than ever before from deep.
The Clippers are a good defensive team but they allow the fifth-most 3s per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.
Jokic has gone over this mark in five straight and hit seven triples against the Clippers earlier this year.
Harden over 1.5 threes (-305): On the other end of the spectrum is Harden, who is chucking up threes at a heavy rate.
The former scoring champ is averaging 2.8 threes on 8.1 attempts per night and has cleared this line in 13 straight games and 19 of 21 games on the season.
He’s hit 16 threes in his last four games — making at least three 3s in each of them — and should keep firing tonight.
Picks made at 11:37 a.m. on 12/01/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.