The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat for the second half of a home-and-home series.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a much better team at home so I am backing it to cover an alternate spread. I also like prop picks on RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl to make up a +330 ticket.
Check out my Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 1.
Raptors vs. Heat predictions
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Parlay: Raptors +7.5 + Barrett over 5.5 assists + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+330)
Raptors +7.5 (-200): Toronto is a more competent team at home so I am not too worried about the 10-point loss to the Heat on Friday.
The Raptors are 6-2 against the spread at Scotiabank Arena and 13-7 ATS overall, per Team Rankings.
I know the team is 5-15 but let’s look at some recent results in Toronto:
- 110-105 win vs. Timberwolves
- 130-119 win vs. Pacers
- 131-128 win vs. Kings
The Raptors went 5-0 against this spread at home in November.
SGP legs
Barrett over 5.5 assists (-127): The Canadian has become quite the playmaker for his hometown Raptors.
In Year 7, Barrett is averaging a career-high 6.3 assists, which is 2.2 higher than his previous best (4.1).
And it seems the return of Scottie Barnes isn’t going to deter Barrett from getting his fair share of helpers.
In the past four games, he’s 3-1 against this mark and he has an opportunity to grow on his seven-assist performance in Miami.
The Heat allow the fifth-most assists to point guards (9.8).
Even though Barrett isn’t listed as a PG, I have to consider Immanuel Quickley’s absence and how Barrett and Barnes are dominant ball handlers for the time being.
Both were able to have big nights on Friday with Barnes recording 10 assists and a triple-double.
Toronto is sixth in assists per game (28.6) so a lot of this leg will rely on shooters hitting their shots but I’m sure the opportunities will be there.
Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-113): This is playable as a single, no doubt, but I like the value here and it gives a nice boost to the SGP.
Poeltl averages 11.9 rebounds per game and this is certainly a buy-low spot.
The big man has missed this mark in back-to-back games but recorded 11-plus rebounds in six straight previous contests.
The Heat also provide a great matchup, allowing the third-most rebounds per game (16.4) to opposing centres.
Toronto is fourth in total boards (46.4) and second in offensive rebounds (14.1) per game.
Picks made at 9:39 a.m. on 12/01/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.