The Buffalo Bills are off a bye and into prime time at home against the San Francisco 49ers.
The pregame narrative: Snow is in the forecast for Sunday Night Football, and I’m expecting a strong effort from Josh Allen on the ground. I’m looking for him to cash a pair of wagers with his legs. Conversely, I’m fading a beaten-up Brock Purdy who’s battling more than just the weather.
Check out my 49ers vs. Bills prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 1.
49ers vs. Bills prop picks
Best Bet: Allen to score a touchdown (+110)
San Francisco is coming off a lopsided, 38-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Those who watched the game know that was as scathing of a loss as that team has suffered all season.
Forget about Purdy’s absence, which didn’t contribute at all to the squad’s inability to stop the run. Green Bay handed the ball to Josh Jacobs 26 times for 106 yards and three touchdowns in the victory.
The Niners have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns across their last five games.
That’s tough news with Allen and the Bills on deck.
Buffalo’s rushing attack has contributed plenty to the team’s offensive success, ranking fourth in the league in rushing touchdowns (18).
James Cook is a shifty runner, but Allen often calls his own number near the goal line.
The Bills are 11th in run-play percentage (46.37%) and I expect them to lean on the ground game in this contest.
Key stat: Allen has a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games.
Quick picks
Allen over 34.5 rushing yards (-120): The last time we saw Allen, he did this:
Allen’s game-clinching rumble contributed to his 55 rushing yards on 12 attempts in the team’s victory over Kansas City.
It’s further proof that Allen will put the ball in his own hands in big moments.
A primetime game with snow in the forecast and positioning in the AFC on the line sets up another important moment for the Bills.
Allen is using his legs more, too, as we get deeper into the campaign. He’s totalled 29 carries and 137 rushing yards (34.3 per game) across his last four contests.
I like his chances of besting this total against a San Francisco defence that is beaten up after a physical loss to Green Bay.
Purdy longest completion – under 33.5 yards (-113): There’s a lot working against Purdy airing it out in this contest.
The first is his health. Purdy is dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder that kept him out of last week’s game.
Secondly, the Niners are an injury-riddled bunch. Brandon Aiyuk is out and Purdy’s best protector, Trent Williams, is sidelined. That means he’ll have less time to step into passes deeper down the field.
Thirdly, the Bills feature a frugal pass defence. Buffalo is tied for ceding the fifth-fewest yards per throw (6.2) in the league.
Add in some inclement weather and I don’t see Purdy getting anywhere close to this mark.
Picks made at 2:18 p.m. ET 11/30/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.