Tonight’s five-pack of NBA matchups concludes with the Utah Jazz hosting the Dallas Mavericks.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is doubtful for tonight, but I still like the Mavericks to cover an alternate spread. This +280 SGP also includes props for Naji Marshall and Collin Sexton.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 30.
Mavericks vs. Jazz predictions
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Parlay: Mavericks -2.5 + Marshall over 14.5 points + Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (+280)
Mavericks -2.5 (-235): Dallas lost as an 8-point road favourite when it last faced Utah, but I expect those fortunes to turn tonight.
Since that loss, the Mavericks are 6-1 straight up and ATS. The crazy part is that they’ve played most of those games without Doncic, who is doubtful tonight.
In the past two weeks, the Luka-less Mavericks have won as underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks.
With that in mind, a revenge spot against the woeful Jazz should lead to another victory.
Since its narrow win over Dallas, Utah is 1-6 and each of those losses came by at least four points.
SGP legs
Marshall over 14.5 points (-180): Marshall isn’t a household name, but he’s doing plenty to earn the praise of Mavs fans.
The fifth-year forward has started back-to-back games with Klay Thompson out and will likely slot into the starting lineup again tonight.
- Marshall has 15+ points in 7/12 games since Nov. 4.
- He’s cashed this bet in five straight games, with 20+ points in each of his past four.
You need to be on the court to score, and Marshall has earned his spot as Dallas deals with some key injuries.
The Jazz have the lowest defensive rating in the league, and Marshall scored 19 points against them on 9-of-14 shooting earlier this month.
Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (-205): Overs are 5-0-1 in Dallas’ past six games, so I could see the Jazz putting up some points tonight and making this a bit of a track meet.
With that in mind, the streaking Sexton looks like a viable candidate to have a strong performance. He’s coming off three straight games with 20-plus points, which would already put us in a great spot to cash.
Sexton has cleared this PRA line in nine of his past 12 games, averaging 25.2 PRA in that span.
In two prior matchups against Dallas this season, Sexton finished with 29 and 24 PRA, respectively.
NBA picks made at 12:48 p.m. on 11/30/24.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.