The two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday.
The pregame narrative: This game looks like a blowout on paper, but I’m still backing a pair of Raiders — Brock Bowers and Ameer Abdullah — to make some noise. On the Chiefs’ side, Patrick Mahomes is on a hot streak right now that’s worth tailing.
Check out my Raiders vs. Chiefs prop picks for Week 13 below.
Raiders vs. Chiefs prop picks
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Best Bet: Bowers over 6.5 receptions (-103)
Bowers should be Aidan O’Connell’s safety blanket today.
The Chiefs rank No. 8 in scoring defence and No. 4 in total defence, posing a daunting matchup for an inexperienced quarterback taking the reins on a short week.
But that’s where Bowers comes in. The rookie tight end is performing well beyond his years, commanding the NFL’s fifth-highest target share since Week 5 (29.8%), per Fantasy Pros.
Why did I pick Week 5 as the starting point? That aligns with the first of three consecutive games in which O’Connell saw some or all of the action as Vegas’ quarterback.
Check out Bowers’ production in Weeks 5-7:
- at Broncos: 8 catches, 97 yards, 1 TD (12 targets)
- vs. Steelers: 9 catches, 71 yards (10 targets)
- at Rams: 10 catches, 93 yards (14 targets)
O’Connell returned to the bench and Bowers’ targets diminished in the following two weeks. He only had five catches against the Chiefs in Week 8 … but to be fair, he only saw five targets in that game.
All told, Bowers is averaging 7.7 receptions on 10.7 targets in his past seven games. He’s the best weapon the Raiders have, and AOC should look to him consistently.
Key stat: The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions per game (6.3) and yards per game (72.5) to opposing tight ends this season.
Quick pick
Mahomes over 249.5 passing yards (-114): The Chiefs are 13-point home favourites, so this might not seem like an ideal game script for Mahomes to air it out.
But he’s found a groove in recent weeks that I believe makes this number playable. Here are Mahomes’ numbers over his past five games:
- 256.8 yards/game
- 260+ yards in 4/5 games
- 12 TDs
- 3 INTs
- 71.7% completion rate
It just so happens that DeAndre Hopkins joined the Chiefs five games ago, and I don’t view that as a coincidence. This strong recent run also includes a 262-yard performance for Mahomes against the Raiders.
Abdullah anytime TD (+240): Las Vegas is a hefty underdog and isn’t likely to score a lot of points. But at this price, I’m digging the opportunity for Abdullah.
- With Zamir White ruled out and Alexander Mattison listed as questionable — after limited practices throughout the week — Abdullah is set up for hefty involvement.
- He saw a 90% snap share last week and out-snapped Mattison in the previous two games that they were both on the field.
Abdullah has always been more of a scatback than a between-the-tackles runner, so he should continue to get touches even if the Chiefs run up a big lead.
Last week, his first of the year as a starter, Abdullah turned 13 touches into 65 yards and a touchdown. He had two carries in the red zone and one target inside the 10-yard line.
Picks made at 9:29 a.m. ET 11/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.