I’m locked into Sunday’s 4 p.m. slate for my three NFL prop bets of the week.
The pregame narrative: A.J. Brown is a menace with a favourable matchup, so the over on his receiving yards looks like a strong play. Elsewhere, Taysom Hill should stay involved for the New Orleans Saints.
Check out the best NFL Week 13 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 13 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 13 betting markets.
Best bet: Brown over 90.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Philadelphia Eagles run the ball more often (and arguably more successfully) than any other team. But I’m not sure that strategy will work on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore allows the fewest yards per rush (3.5), and its defence ranks second in rush success rate (31.6%), per RBSDM.com.
But for as adept as the Ravens are at stopping the run, they are a gettable group through the air. And that’s where Brown comes in.
Brown, coming off his second game of 100-plus yards in the past three weeks, is an elite big-play receiver who also sees plenty of volume.
- Since Week 6, Brown leads the NFL with a 31.9% target share.
- Brown’s 13.1 average depth of target is a career-high, per Rotowire.
DeVonta Smith missed practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury, so his status will be one to watch ahead of Sunday. If Smith is sidelined — or even limited — that’ll only enhance Brown’s stellar opportunity.
Key stat: Baltimore has allowed the second-most yards per game to opposing WRs (185.8).
Quick picks
Hill over 62.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114): Hill is a borderline position-less football player. He was drafted as a quarterback, is listed as a tight end and has six rushing TDs in his past five games.
No matter what position he’s in, it’s clear he can still be a productive asset for the New Orleans Saints in Year 8.
Prior to the Saints’ Week 12 bye, Hill exploded for 188 scrimmage yards and three TDs. He now has 40-plus scrimmage yards in four straight games.
What’s more compelling to me is Hill’s usage in two weeks under new head coach Darren Rizzi. Hill, who worked with Rizzi for years in the special teams unit, might be a favourite in Rizzi’s system.
Hill is only averaging 7.4 touches on the season, but he has 21 touches in the past two games.
Mike Evans over 57.5 receiving yards (-114): A hamstring injury cost Evans a few games recently, but he returned in excellent form in Week 12.
- Evans caught five of six targets for a team-high 68 yards last Sunday against the New York Giants.
- He only had a 58% snap share, which is below his typical average of 70-85% and suggests he’ll see an uptick in usage this week.
Evans has a fantastic matchup against a Carolina Panthers squad that ranks 32nd in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed.
In his past five matchups against the Panthers (since 2021), Evans has averaged 115.2 yards and cashed this prop four times.
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 11/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.