I’m backing three players to catch a touchdown pass on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins are two of the best receivers in the game and they draw great matchups. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth has a good opportunity to perform for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Check out the best NFL Week 13 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 13 TD picks
Go to full NFL betting markets.
Best bet: Collins anytime TD (-110)
Collins was electric last week, going for 92 yards and a score against the Tennesee Titans.
That would’ve marked his fourth straight game with a TD had his 77-yard touchdown not been called back against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.
The speedy wide receiver has had a 25-plus yard catch in every game and is a threat to burst loose for a long score at any moment.
But he’s also a favourite of C.J. Stroud’s in the red zone, tying the team lead in targets (nine) despite missing five games.
Collins and Co. are going up against a Jaguars secondary allowing the most passing yards per game (279.3).
Key stat: Jacksonville has allowed the second-most passing TDs (24) in the NFL.
Quick picks
Jefferson anytime TD (-148): Jefferson scored in four straight games to start the season but has gone ice cold since, logging just one TD in his last seven.
A lot has been made of players like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (six) having more TDs than Jefferson (five) –— but that doesn’t mean much to me.
The Vikings’ star receiver has 14 red-zone targets which is double that of Jalen Nailor, who is next on the team with seven.
Jefferson’s 939 receiving yards ranks second in the league behind only his former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. At the risk of sounding reductive, he’s simply due to score if he keeps putting up gaudy totals.
This week’s matchup should be a good one for Jefferson to get off the schneid as the Arizona Cardinals rank 21st in defensive EPA per dropback.
Freiermuth anytime TD (+230): Freiermuth has had some internal competition in the last five weeks with the emergence of second-year TE Darnell Washington:
- Freiermuth weeks 7-12: 13 catches, 14 targets, 160 yards
- Washington weeks 7-12: 11 catches, 15 targets, 127 yards
But Freiermuth still out-snapped Washington in four of those five games and has been Pittsburgh’s red-zone TE this year.
Freiermuth has seven targets inside the 20 — turning three of those into touchdowns — while Washington and Conor Heyward (Pittsburgh’s third-string TE) have three combined.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ secondary is awful and it particularly struggles to defend tight ends. Cincy is allowing the fifth-most yards (62.2) and second-most TDs (0.64) to TEs per game.
Picks made at 2:37 p.m. ET on 11/29/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.