Three clubs in the bottom half of the table are featured in my EPL Matchday 13 picks.
The pregame narrative: Bournemouth has lost its last two matches but I expect it to bounce back against Wolverhampton this Saturday. On Sunday, I like Everton to steal a point against a Manchester United side adapting to a new system.
Check out the best EPL Matchday 13 picks.
EPL Matchday 13 picks
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Best Bet: Bournemouth draw no bet (-127)
I believe there is value in picking the Cherries to take care of business at Wolverhampton.
Bournemouth suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat to red-hot Brighton in its recent fixture but pulled off stunning upsets against Arsenal and Manchester City at home to long ago.
Wolves, luckily, are nowhere near the same tier as those sides.
They come off an impressive 4-1 win at Fulham but were winless in their first 10 matches.
Wolves struggle to defend set pieces, conceding a league-worst nine goals on set-piece play. Bournemouth has whipped in the third-most crosses (274) and has scored four goals on set pieces.
Antoine Semenyo is suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card last weekend but the Cherries have quality forwards in Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier alongside Lewis Cook in the midfield.
Off consecutive losses, Andoni Iraola’s men should be heavily motivated to grab points.
Key stat: In its last meeting with Wolverhampton, Bournemouth secured a 1-0 victory at Molineaux Stadium despite falling to 10 men in the final 21 minutes.
Quick pick
Everton +1 (-107): I will step in front of the “new manager bump” and bet against Manchester United.
In Ruben Amorim’s debut as United manager, the team generated a measly 0.80 expected goals (xG) in the 1-1 draw against bottom-feeder Ipswich Town.
It lost the xG battle and was outshot 6-to-4.
The transition from Erik ten Hag’s 4-2-3-1 setup to Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 is a drastic one.
United do not possess the wing-backs capable of defending in a low block and carrying the ball out in transition.
Everton struggles to create scoring chances, but it often keeps its matches tight and low-scoring.
Everton has not lost by more than a goal since the 4-0 defeat at Tottenham on Aug. 24, drawing Newcastle, Fulham and Brentford in recent months.
Brentford to win first half (+116): The Bees are an ultra-aggressive squad who love to attack early.
Brentford owns the league’s best home record (5-1-0) and the full-time odds reflect that at -141, so I’ll take a different approach.
Its 14 first-half goals are tied with Manchester City for the league lead and Leicester sports the worst first-half goal differential (-8).
The Bees have scored 16 of their 22 goals from open play and Leicester has allowed the second-most open-play goals (17) in the Premiership
The Foxes sacked manager Steve Cooper on Sunday and appointed Ruud van Nisterooy on Wednesday. However, the club is rolling with first-team coach Ben Dawson for this match.
To fade a relegation-contending team without a manager at plus-odds, this seems too good to pass on.
Picks made at 11:24 p.m. on 11/28/24.
