The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions kick off Thursday’s Thanksgiving festivities with a divisional showdown in the Motor City.
The pregame narrative: Chicago has lost five straight but I’m backing it to cover a heavily teased-up spread. I’m also taking the over on a Caleb Williams passing prop and Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving line.
Check out my Bears vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions for Week 13.
Bears vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bears +14.5 + Williams over 226.5 passing yards + St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (+340)
Bears +14.5 (-220): With the way these teams are trending, conventional wisdom would point toward a Lions blowout victory at home.
- Chicago has lost five straight with a -45 point differential
- Detroit has won nine straight with a +175 point differential
But the Bears have shown some fight in the last two weeks.
They almost beat the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings but choked to lose those contests by a combined four points. They’re also 9-2 against this line on the season.
The Lions are a wagon but are still 4-7 against a -14.5 line this season.
Three of those ATS wins came against Anthony Richardson, Mac Jones and Mason Rudolph (Dak Prescott, too).
Williams hasn’t been on a Rookie of the Year trajectory but he’s played better lately, throwing for 571 yards in the last two games with a 70.5% completion rate.
This should be much closer than people expect.
Other parlay picks
Williams over 226.5 passing yards (-113): Williams hasn’t cleared this line often despite going over it in the last two games.
He’s 4-7 against it this year while landing on exactly 226 yards once.
But this should be a good spot for the No. 1 overall pick to stay hot. Just because I think the Bears will cover +14.5 doesn’t mean I think the Lions’ offence will fall asleep.
Detroit will score, meaning Williams should be in a pass-first role for most of the game.
The Lions’ defence allows the eighth-most passing yards per game (227.2) while ranking second in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback for that very reason.
Standout Detroit corner Carlton Davis III has also been ruled out with an injury, while Chicago’s Keenan Allen is beginning to find his footing.
That all bodes will for Williams’ passing total.
St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-120): On the other side of the ball, I expect St. Brown to have a statement game.
It’s been a relatively quiet year for the standout WR after posting 1,515 receiving yards last season (third-most in the NFL).
St. Brown is on pace for 1,154 this time around and has only recorded 70-plus receiving yards four times. But he’s been in the ballpark of this number often, averaging 76.3 receiving yards across his last six games.
Chicago’s secondary has fallen by the wayside since its Week 7 bye, with the team ranking 23rd in defensive EPA per dropback during its five-game losing streak.
St. Brown still commands a 28.5% target share, per RotoWire, which is elite among all receivers and tight ends.
Picks made at 3:40 p.m. on 11/27/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.