Tonight’s NBA prop bets aren’t hurting for star power, as I’m targeting Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OG Anunoby.
The pregame narrative: The Gilgeous-Alexander prop is a fade in Wednesday’s nightcap against the Golden State Warriors, but I like overs for the other two players. Jokic draws a juicy matchup despite being on the road and Anunoby is on fire as a shooter right now.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 27.
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Best bet: Jokic over 1.5 threes (-107)
Jokic draws a dream matchup on Wednesday against the Utah Jazz.
Both the Denver Nuggets and the Jazz rank in the top 12 in pace, which is part of why this game has a solid scoring upside. It’s tied for the fourth-highest projected total (229.5 points) on the 14-game slate.
Looking specifically at Utah, it’s a pretty grim picture on the defensive side of things.
- The Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent points/game.
- Opposing centres are averaging 27.4 PPG (second-most) and 2.3 threes (most) vs. Utah.
- In general, opponents are averaging the third-most made 3s (14.6) and attempted 3s (40.0) per game against Utah.
Jokic doesn’t attempt a ton of 3s, which is why this line is so low despite his staggering 52.7% 3-point percentage on the season.
Still, it’s a bit too low in my opinion. During a year in which Jokic is shouldering more of the scoring load than ever before, he’s attempting a career-high 4.2 threes per game.
That still isn’t a huge volume, but his efficiency has made up for it. And with such a gem of a matchup tonight, I think somewhere around four to six attempted 3s is reasonable.
Jokic, who fired seven 3s apiece in back-to-back games, has cashed this bet eight times in 13 matchups.
Key stat: On Nov. 2, Jokic went 3-for-4 from beyond the arc against the Jazz. He had 27 points and 16 rebounds in just 30 minutes.
Quick pick
Anunoby over 23.5 points/rebounds (-121): Anunoby is on a tear as a scorer right now, and not just because of his career-high 40 points last time out.
Over his past nine games, Anunoby has cashed this points/rebounds line six times on points alone. In that span, he’s averaging 23.2 points and 6.1 rebounds (29.3 PR).
Tonight’s Knicks vs. Mavericks game has the second-highest projected total on the schedule (233.5 points), and this looks like a good way to buy in.
Also, the Mavericks are allowing the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards (11.4), per Betting Pros.
Gilgeous-Alexander under 1.5 threes (+116): It isn’t fun to fade a red-hot star, but I think there’s a practical argument for taking the under on SGA’s 3s prop tonight.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a respectable 3-point shooter, but he’s far from the best the Thunder have to offer.
In fact, among six OKC players averaging 3.5 or more 3-point attempts per game, his 35.5% scoring clip ranks last.
Tonight’s matchup is as bad as it gets for Gilgeous-Alexander, who went 0-for-2 from deep and 6-for-17 from the field when he last faced the Warriors.
- SGA is averaging 1.3 threes on 3.4 attempts in his past eight games vs. Golden State (since January 2023).
- The Warriors allow the lowest 3PT% (31.8) and the fifth-fewest made 3s per game (12.5).
Picks made a 9:07 a.m. ET on 11/27/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.