The Toronto Maple Leafs carry their four-game winning streak into Sunrise to take on the defending champion Florida Panthers.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is running hot and Florida is not, losing six of its last seven. But I’m staying away from picking a side tonight and am instead taking the under and fading Carter Verhaeghe.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Panthers for the Nov. 27 game on Wednesday night.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Panthers
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Best Bet: Under 6 goals in regulation (-137)
The Maple Leafs have bought into Craig Berube’s system with Auston Matthews sidelined.
Look at how the team has fared without its superstar centre:
- 7-1-0 record
- 1.63 goals allowed per game
- Wins over the Oilers, Bruins, Capitals and Golden Knights
Strong defence, gritty play and elite goaltending have become the norm and that should continue tonight against a tough opponent.
I trust Sergei Bobrovsky to stand tall for the slumping Panthers. He’s been getting shelled lately but has the Leafs’ number, holding them to two or fewer goals in six of the last seven meetings.
And it’s not like Toronto’s offence is humming.
The Buds are averaging north of 3.00 goals per game without Matthews but have only scored nine at even strength, according to Natural Stat Trick. That is tied for the fewest in the league since Nov. 4 alongside the Chicago Blackhawks.
Matthews logged his first practice with the team since returning from Germany on Tuesday, so I can’t picture him playing tonight.
All but two of Toronto’s last eight games have gone under 6.5 goals with the outliers being a pair of 4-3 overtime victories (both pushing against this line).
It’s unclear whether Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz will start tonight, but both have been fantastic and I trust them to shut down this Panthers team.
Key stat: There have only been 17 even-strength goals in Toronto’s last eight games (2.12/game).
Quick picks
Verhaeghe under 0.5 points (+107): Woll and Stolarz each rank inside the top four for GAA and top 10 for save percentage.
Verhaeghe is struggling and will have his work cut out for him regardless of who’s between the pipes.
The second-line winger has just three points in his last six games and has been held pointless in six of 11 games this month. His line with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk has been getting caved in as Verhaeghe is -10 in his last four games.
Toronto has allowed the fewest even-strength goals this month (12) and Verhaeghe doesn’t skate on the top power play. I’ll happily fade him at plus money.
NHL picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 11/13/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.