Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States and the NFL is providing fans with three exciting games.
The pregame narrative: Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from injury and I like him to keep it going against the Green Bay Packers. In the other games, I’m siding with prop picks on Rico Dowdle and DJ Moore.
Check out the best NFL prop picks for American Thanksgiving on Nov. 28.
NFL prop picks
Go to full NFL Thanksgiving betting markets.
Best bet: Tagovailoa over 237.5 passing yards (-113)
Since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has been cooking for the Dolphins.
- He has 11 TDs and just one INT
- Tua has cleared this line in back-to-back weeks
- He averaged 302.5 passing yards in those games
It feels like Tagovailoa is getting back to the gunslinger fans have become accustomed to, as the QB has attempted 36-plus passes in consecutive weeks.
Although Green Bay has been good defensively this season, the side allows opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of passes which ranks right in the middle of the pack (16th).
Tagovailoa averages 251.4 passing yards per game which is down from last season’s average of 272.0. I expect the QB to keep building on recent results and finish the season strong.
Key stat: Tua is 3-1 against this line in games where he attempted 35 or more passes.
Quick picks
Dowdle over 66.5 rushing yards (-117): With both teams turning to backup QBs, I’ll opt to get behind one of the starting running backs.
Dowdle came alive last week and ran for 86 yards on 19 attempts in Dallas’ 34-26 upset win over the Washington Commanders.
In fact, let’s look at Dowdle’s stats in the other games where he rushed over 12 times:
- Week 10: 12 rushes, 53 yards
- Week 9: 12 rushes, 75 yards
- Week 5: 20 rushes, 87 yards
It’s clear the key is volume and I think there will be enough against the Giants.
Dallas is a 4-point favourite so there’s reason to believe it will be ahead. If that’s the case, Dowdle will be responsible for taking care of the ball and running the clock.
Dowdle’s snap share has increased steadily throughout the season (61% last week) so this is a great spot to jump in and tail the Cowboys’ newest lead back.
Moore over 4.5 receptions (-113): The Detroit Lions have a great run defence so the Chicago Bears will more than likely need to pass for success.
And there’s no one better to get behind than Moore. He leads the Bears in receptions (54) and targets (80) to this point.
In the past two weeks, Moore has 14 catches (seven each week) for 168 yards.
As Caleb Williams starts to figure it out, his No. 1 receiver is the main beneficiary.
This year’s first-overall pick has thrown for 571 yards with a 70.5% completion rate across those games.
Williams has only turned the ball over once since Week 3 which means lengthier drives and more catch opportunities for Moore.
Even though the Lions allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards (94.9), their secondary is far from elite, giving up the eighth-most passing yards (227.2).
Picks made at 9:24 a.m. ET on 11/26/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.