The Sacramento Kings host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Monday’s NBA nightcap.
The pregame narrative: Sacramento has lost three straight and is on a back-to-back but I’m staying clear of picking a side. Instead, bet on DeMar DeRozan, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in a +285 ticket.
Check out my Thunder vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 25.
Thunder vs. Kings predictions
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Parlay: DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds + Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists + Williams over 1.5 threes (+285)
DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds (-137): I think this is a smash play at -137 and am also eyeing the over on DeRozan’s 4.5 rebound prop at +163.
The veteran small forward is averaging 4.3 boards this season and has at least five rebounds in four straight games. Overall, he’s cleared this mark in eight of 14 contests while playing 36.4 minutes a night.
OKC has been brutal on the glass for the last two seasons and sits dead last in rebounding rate.
Isaiah Hartenstein made his Thunder debut on Nov. 20 and picked up 14 rebounds, so that’s bound to change moving forward. But still, that’s only one man and he’s not going to play the full 48 minutes.
The Thunder give up the third-most rebounds to small forwards per game (9.18), per Fantasy Pros, and I expect DeRozan to be active on the glass.
SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (-152): Gilgeous-Alexander is a scorer first and foremost but he’s elevated his game as a passer over the last two seasons.
The Canadian superstar averaged a career-best 6.2 assists per game last season and is sitting at 6.3 so far. He’s also averaging 12.9 potential assists per game, which ranks 13th in the league according to NBA.com.
SGA had at least four assists in 14 straight games and is 8-6 against this line in that span, with two eight-assist games in his last three outings.
Sacramento is a middling defensive team that gives up the seventh-most assists per game to point guards.
Williams over 1.5 threes (-286): The Kings’ biggest defensive weakness this season has been containing the perimeter.
Sacramento is letting opponents shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc, which is tied for the third-highest rate in the NBA.
OKC averages the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game and Williams is my pick to take advantage.
The third-year forward is shooting 39.0% from deep (2.0-of-5.1 per night) and just hit five 3s against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Picks made at 10:08 a.m. on 11/25/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.