A trio of big men make up Sunday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam gets one of the league’s worst defensive teams while Dereck Lively and Evan Mobley have exploitable matchups.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 24.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Siakam over 23.5 points (-109)
I’m sure the Indiana Pacers didn’t want Pascal Siakam to be the alpha dog when they traded for him last year but that’s what’s happened.
Tyrese Haliburton is having a dreadful start to the season and Bennedict Mathurin isn’t quite there yet as a polished player.
Siakam is leading the team in points (20.8) and field goal attempts (14.6) per game and is shooting a respectable 55.4% from the floor.
He’s scored 20-plus points in four straight and five of his last six and is in good shape to keep the ball rolling against the Washington Wizards.
Washington has the worst defensive rating in basketball and gets eaten alive at the rim. Siakam isn’t a pure post player but he does a lot of his damage near the basket and can make shots from most places on the court.
Key stat: Siakam hasn’t played the Wizards since joining Indiana but averaged 30.5 PPG against them on 63.1% shooting in two games last year with the Toronto Raptors.
Quick picks
Mobley over 16.5 points (-130): I’ve been on the Mobley train all season and this is another nice spot to back the power forward.
The Raptors get annihilated at the rim and in the short midrange, according to Cleaning the Glass:
- 26th in opponent FG% at the rim (69.3%)
- 24th in opponent FG% in the short midrange (43.9%)
Mobley takes 84% of his shots from that area and converts them at a 60.3% clip. He’s averaging a career-best 17.8 points per game and has cleared this mark in four of his last six.
In Cleveland’s season-opening game against the Raptors, Mobley scored 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting.
Lively over 16.5 points and rebounds (-106): Daniel Gafford is questionable today with a shoulder injury. That’s worth watching because this is a smash play if Dallas’ starting centre can’t suit up.
But even if Gafford gets his normal amount of run, I like Lively’s chances of having a day.
- Lively averages 8.8 points and 6.8 rebounds (15.6 P/R) in just over 20 minutes a night.
- He’s shooting 71.0% on the season
- Has gone over this line in 3/7 games in November (with exactly 16 P/R one time)
The Miami Heat struggle to defend near the basket and on the glass, ranking 20th in opponent FG% at the rim and 22nd in rebound rate.
Picks made at 8:33 a.m. ET on 11/24/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.