It’s a star-studded cast for my NBA prop bets on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Both LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama are facing teams that are on road back-to-backs, and I like them to take advantage. Also, read why I expect Jaren Jackson Jr. to swat a couple of shots.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 23.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: LeBron over 17.5 rebounds/assists (-112)
LeBron is an ageless, position-less superstar who somehow can still do whatever he wants at damn near 40 years old.
The 21-year veteran is averaging 17.6 rebounds/assists per game, which is notably above his career average (14.9 RA). He’s still an elite scorer — especially from 3-point land — but he’s backed off on shot volume in favour of helping the Los Angeles Lakers in other ways.
- Shooting a career-low 17.0 FGA per game
- His 9.3 APG is the second-highest average of his career
- LeBron has 10+ assists in 8/15 games and 10+ rebounds in 6/15 games
The Denver Nuggets play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 101.1 possessions per game. With more possessions comes more opportunities for rebounds and assists.
At 6-foot-9, LeBron is tall enough (and athletic enough) to be a factor on the glass every night. But where he’s really shining this year is as a passer.
LeBron is averaging 16.0 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com, which accounts for all passes that immediately lead to a shot. Next on the list for L.A. is Austin Reaves at 10.1, so it’s a sizeable gap.
Denver is playing a back-to-back, so perhaps a fatigued Nikola Jokic will cede some rebounding opportunities to LeBron.
The King is averaging 20.0 RA over his past nine games, and I like him to stay active in those stat categories tonight.
Key stat: In his past 12 games against the Nuggets (since May 2023, playoffs included), LeBron is averaging 16.6 RA and has cashed this bet six times.
Quick picks
Wembanyama over 35.5 points/rebounds (-125): Wembanyama has missed three straight games with a knee injury and is questionable tonight. But if he plays, I like his chances of putting up big numbers against a Golden State Warriors team that likes to run.
- Golden State ranks fifth in the NBA in pace (102.3 possessions/game)
- Golden State allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres, according to Betting Pros
- Last year, Wembanyama had 41 points/rebounds in both home games against the Warriors
Wemby was on a tear right before his injury, averaging 34.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in a four-game span. Here’s hoping he can pick that back up in a favourable matchup.
Jackson over 1.5 blocks (-134): You don’t get the nickname of “Block Panther” by playing passive defence.
Jackson, a two-time block champion, has averaged 1.6 blocks per game or better in every season since 2019-20.
This year, the Michigan State product has multiple blocks in eight of 14 games — including four in a row.
Jackson had three blocks against the Chicago Bulls back on Oct. 28, and that’s who he’ll face tonight.
It’d make sense for Jackson to continue seeing ample shot-blocking opportunities against Chicago, given that the Bulls play at the fastest pace in the NBA (104.9 possessions/game).
Picks made at 2:05 p.m. ET on 11/23/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.