The Denver Nuggets have dominated the Los Angeles Lakers in recent matchups, but the Lakers are the favourites in tonight’s contest at Crypto.com Arena.
The pregame narrative: My +255 SGP for Saturday’s game features a trio of prop bets. I like Nikola Jokic to put up big numbers as a scorer, Austin Reaves to can multiple 3s and Jamal Murray to stay productive as a passer.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 23.
Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions
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Parlay: Jokic over 25.5 points + Reaves over 1.5 threes + Murray over 5.5 assists (+255)
Jokic over 25.5 points (-175): Denver’s rotation looks a bit thinner this year than we’ve grown accustomed to, and that has forced Jokic to become even more of a do-it-all star than he already was.
Jokic is averaging a 30-point triple-double so far through 11 games. It’s no mystery why Jokic is the MVP frontrunner as we approach December.
My favourite way to back the Joker tonight is as a scorer. He’s gone over this point total in nine of 11 games so far.
The Lakers allow the seventh-most points per game (116.2), and Jokic is averaging 28.6 PPG against them in eight matchups since the start of last season.
SGP legs
Reaves over 1.5 threes (-295): This is the safest leg of the three, and for good reason. Reaves is having another solid year from beyond the arc on a healthy volume of shots.
On a career-high 7.5 attempted 3s per game, Reaves is shooting 36.3%. That equates to 2.7 makes per game, and he’s canned multiple 3s in eight of his past nine.
Simply put, this just isn’t much of an ask for a guy attempting more than seven 3s per night.
Last season — including the playoffs — Reaves cashed this bet in three of four home matchups against the Nuggets.
Murray over 5.5 assists (-130): I like this play as a straight wager, but it also fits nicely into this SGP (especially if Jokic is filling the net).
Murray had a slow start as a passer, averaging just 4.4 APG in his first five games. But he’s cashed this prop in all six games since.
Over his past eight matchups against the Lakers, Murray has averaged 8.0 APG. This year, L.A. has allowed the third-most assists per game to its opponents.
In November, Murray is averaging 11.0 potential assists per game.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 11/23/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.