Saturday’s college football slate is packed from noon through the late-night window. I’ve got three prop picks to cover the action.
The pregame narrative: Starting off, I like Ohio State Buckeyes wideout Jeremiah Smith to have another big game against an overmatched opponent. Elsewhere, look for Matthew Golden to find the end zone for the Texas Longhorns and for Jayden Maiava to build off a strong debut with the USC Trojans.
Check out the best college football prop picks for Week 13 action on Nov. 23.
College football prop picks
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Best Bet: Smith over 69.5 receiving yards (-125)
Whether or not you want to criticize the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers’ strength of schedule, there’s at least one thing that can’t be disputed. The Hoosiers haven’t seen a talent like Jeremiah Smith lining up out wide.
Smith, 247 Sports’ top-ranked national recruit in the 2024 class, is as game-breaking as advertised.
- Leads the Big Ten in touchdown catches (9)
- Has 70+ yards in 9/10 games
- Is averaging 86.5 YPG
No. 2 Ohio State is known as a factory for producing NFL-calibre receivers. It’ll be a couple more years before the true freshman hears his name in the draft, but he’s well on his way.
And in a WR room full of potential Sunday stars, Smith is the one shining brightest.
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The 18-year-old is 253 yards clear of Ohio State’s second-leading receiver, Emeka Egbuka, who’s viewed by many as a first-rounder-in-waiting for the 2025 NFL Draft.
So, how are the Hoosiers going to stop Smith? I’m not confident they can.
Indiana has faced one top-30 passing offence this year: Maryland. None of the Terrapins’ receivers cleared this yardage total, but the team tagged IU’s secondary for 289 yards and three TDs.
Facing arguably the best receiver in the country, the Hoosiers should struggle to keep the clamps on Smith.
Key stat: Smith has averaged 87.8 receiving yards per game at home and cashed this bet in all six matchups.
Quick picks
Golden anytime TD (+155): I love this price as No. 3 Texas looks to score in bunches against the Kentucky Wildcats.
Golden, a transfer from Houston, is enjoying a solid junior year in Austin. The Longhorns like to spread the ball around, though, so his overall production (29 catches, 417 yards) doesn’t jump off the screen.
But he’s tied for the SEC lead in receiving TDs (eight) and has recently been a focal point of Texas’ red zone offence.
Golden has been targeted in the red zone in four of the past five games. He also has five TDs in just his past three games.
Maiava over 240.5 pass yards (-117): Back in September, USC earned a huge season-opening win over LSU with Miller Moss under centre. But now Moss is on the bench because the Trojans like what they have in Maiava.
The sophomore transfer from UNLV made his first start for USC last week. He completed 25-of-35 passes for 259 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
One game isn’t a convincing sample, obviously. But Maiava went over this yardage total in seven of 12 starts as a true freshman at UNLV, too.
And on Saturday, his matchup against UCLA looks awfully juicy. The rival Bruins have allowed 245.7 pass yards per game, which ranks 101st in FBS.
USC has the fifth-highest pass play percentage in the country (60.4%) and should trust Maiava to air it out.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 11/22/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.