Friday’s matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets is lacking serious star power.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is out and Nikola Jokic is questionable after missing the last three games and yesterday’s practice for personal reasons. In their absence, I expect Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively to step up.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks for Nov. 22.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks
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Best Bet: Irving over 25.5 points (-124)
Irving can’t miss right now but has routinely fallen under this line due to shot volume.
In November, the veteran guard is averaging 24.1 points per game on incredible 59.0/50.0/85.7 shooting splits. He’s 3-6 against this line this month, though, while attempting a middling 15.4 shots per game.
But he should see a serious uptick in volume with Doncic — who averages 22.6 FGA — sidelined.
Also, one of the games where Irving cleared this total was against the Nuggets on Nov. 10. In that contest, he went nuclear for 43 points on 17-of-22 shooting.
I don’t expect that to be replicated but will feel great about this bet if he takes anywhere near 22 shots.
Denver’s biggest defensive weakness is in the short midrange and the rim. Irving is an elite finisher in tight and doesn’t need to do damage beyond the arc to score.
With Jokic unlikely to play and Aaron Gordon out, there should be little resistance for the crafty guard getting to the rim.
Key stat: Irving has averaged 29.4 points in 12 games for Dallas without Doncic, cashing this bet in five of the previous six.
Quick pick
Lively over 14.5 points and rebounds (-124): All signs are pointing to Jokic missing this game, and if that’s the case it should be open season on the glass for Lively.
If the reigning MVP does suit up, it will make this bet a little tougher, but I still like the sophomore’s chances.
Lively doesn’t get a lot of run for the Mavericks but makes the most of his limited opportunities. In 23.4 minutes a night, he is averaging 8.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 69.0% shooting.
The Nuggets are allowing the eighth-most paint points per game and Lively hasn’t taken a single shot outside of 14 feet from the basket this season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
In his last game against Denver (which Jokic played in), Lively had 14 points and eight rebounds coming off the bench.
Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/15/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.