I’m targeting a pair of guards in today’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Cade Cunningham has been putting up career-best numbers in points and assists and should stuff the stat sheet against the Charlotte Hornets. Elsewhere, bet on Stephon Castle to light up the Utah Jazz.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 21.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Cunningham over 32.5 points/assists (-103)
Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (23.3), rebounds (7.3) and assists (8.8).
He hasn’t been particularly efficient from a scoring standpoint but ranks fourth league-wide in helpers and sees a nice matchup tonight:
- Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating
- The Hornets allow the 10th-most assists per game
- They allow the ninth-most assists per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros
Cunningham narrowly fell under this line against Charlotte on Nov. 6 with a 20-point, 10-assist triple-double. But he also shot 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the field in that game, which is his third-lowest mark of the season.
Since then, the fourth-year point guard is 4-3 against this line with at least 30 points/assists in six of those games.
Considering Charlotte struggles to defend the midrange, he should have a bounce-back shooting night.
Cunningham takes 39% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 72nd percentile of all NBA players, per Cleaning the Glass.
Key stat: Cunningham leads the Pistons in field goal attempts (19.6/game) and ranks eighth in the NBA in potential assists (14.6/game).
Quick picks
Castle over 14.5 points (-103): Castle has had a rough start to his NBA career.
The No. 4 pick is going the Scoot Henderson route, making just 38.2% of his field goal attempts while chucking up 9.1 shots per game.
But things have been getting better and he has a nice matchup tonight.
Castle is averaging 14.4 points per game across his last seven while shooting 43.8% from the field. Not great, but it’s an improvement.
Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell are both out tonight, meaning someone else will have to step up.
The Jazz are the league’s worst team at defending the midrange (45.0 opponent FG%) and rank 29th in defending the rim (70.8 opponent FG%).
Castle takes 37% of his shots at the rim and 29% from the midrange.
Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.