Love ’em or hate ’em, the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers are at the centre of the college football world this weekend with serious playoff ramifications on the line.
The pregame narrative: Indiana is unbeaten against a laughably weak schedule … but the joyride is expected to end this week against the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes. I’m riding with the Hoosiers to cover as heavy road dogs, though, while also banking a boatload of points with the Florida Gators against the No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels.
Check out the best college football Week 13 picks for the action on Saturday, Nov. 23.
College football Week 13 picks
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Best Bet: Florida +10.5 (-110)
If you want to bet against Florida at The Swamp, be my guest. I won’t be joining you.
I know Ole Miss rolled Georgia last week, 28-10, as a home underdog. But Florida is coming off a chest-beating win of its own — a 27-16 defeat of LSU as a home dog.
The Gators are 6-1 ATS since Sept. 21. They’re 3-0 in Gainesville in that span, and they were underdogs in each of those games.
With that in mind, a 10.5-point cushion should be plenty.
Ole Miss lost by three points to the same LSU squad that Florida just beat, but I’m not here to play the common opponents game. This is about the Gators playing their best ball at home — and looking solid with DJ Lagway under centre.
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Lagway, 247’s top-rated QB in the 2024 class, has averaged 11.6 yards per attempt in three starts since taking over for the injured Graham Mertz. He’s a livewire, and he gives the Gators a chance to make something big happen anytime the offence is on the field.
Ole Miss still has the advantage under centre with Jaxson Dart — and top receiving threat Tre Harris is expected to return this week — so I’m not here to call for a Florida upset.
But I’ll gladly bank 10.5 points with a strong ATS squad that has played admirably at home.
Key stat: In SEC play, Ole Miss is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit-point favourite.
Quick picks
Indiana +13.5 (-109): How good are the Hoosiers? And can you fault a team that hasn’t played anybody good if they’ve dominated practically everyone in their path?
These are the unanswerable questions that hang over Saturday’s noon matchup at Ohio Stadium.
Indiana is enjoying its best season in history but hasn’t faced a ranked opponent yet. Then again, nine of its 10 wins have come by 14-plus points, and that has to count for something … right?
The spread suggests otherwise, but I’m not laying this number with the Buckeyes. They’ve played with their food too many times this year for me to trust that a blowout is coming:
- Northwestern: Trailed 7-0 in the second quarter
- Penn State: Trailed 10-0 in the first quarter
- Nebraska: Trailed 17-14 in the fourth quarter
- Iowa: Only led 7-0 at halftime
Indiana showed its first signs of concern last time out when it limped to a 20-15 win over Michigan with only a field goal on offence in the second half.
I’m choosing to view that as a wake-up call for the Hoosiers, who’ve since had a bye week to iron some things out. Count on Indiana and its No. 2 scoring offence (43.9 PPG) to be competitive.
Bryson Daily anytime TD scorer (-104): The No. 18 Army Black Knights are 14-point underdogs against the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but I’m not worried about the game script for this pick.
If Army is going to get into the end zone, it’ll almost certainly be Daily carrying the ball in.
- Daily has a whopping 21 rushing TDs in just eight games
- He has 2+ TDs in 7/8 games
- He’s coming off back-to-back games with 30+ rush attempts
Daily averages 6.1 yards/rush, which ranks 25th in the country. Then again, Notre Dame has held its opponents to 3.5 yards/rush, which is 24th in FBS.
It’s a bit of an unstoppable-force-versus-immovable-object situation, but so much of what Army does runs through Daily. At near-even money, I like the value on him to score.
Picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 11/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.