In the nightcap of the NBA’s four-game slate on Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Orlando Magic.
The pregame narrative: Orlando has been one of the toughest teams on the defensive end this season, which makes an alt under look like a nice play tonight. This +250 SGP also features prop bets on Anthony Davis and Franz Wagner.
Check out my Magic vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 21.
Magic vs. Lakers predictions
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Parlay: Under 222.5 points + Davis over 11.5 rebounds + Wagner over 22.5 points (+250)
Under 222.5 points (-205): Unders are red hot for Orlando this month, cashing in nine of 11 games and seven in a row.
On the season, 12 of the Magic’s 16 games have gone under this total. They also recently had a streak of six consecutive games holding their opponents under 100 points, which is quite a feat in the modern NBA.
The Lakers, who rank fourth in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating, aren’t as successful defending their own net. But neither team plays at an above-average pace, so I think Orlando can turn this game into a bit of a slog.
Dating back to the 2021-22 season, Orlando and L.A. have gone under this total in five of six matchups.
SGP legs
Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-177): Davis has never won a rebounding title, but he’s consistently one of the best rebounders in the league. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Davis is averaging 12.5 RPG.
He’s a bit behind that number this year (11.4 RPG) but moving in the right direction. Davis has cashed this bet in four straight games.
Orlando isn’t an amazing matchup for opposing rebounders, but it’s not a terrible one, either. The Magic rank 14th in rebound rate (50.3%) and have allowed a player to cash this bet in three of their past five games.
Last season, Davis hauled in 19 and 13 rebounds, respectively, in his two matchups against Orlando.
Wagner over 22.5 points (-278): Wagner had a quiet night in Los Angeles yesterday (against the Clippers), but I think he can bounce back in the same building on Thursday.
Prior to Wednesday’s 14-point effort on 5-of-11 shooting, he’d cashed this bet in seven consecutive games.
Wagner is averaging 22.3 PPG on the season, which might make this look like a questionable pick given the juice. But it’s important to note that Paolo Banchero has been out since the start of this month, which raises Wagner’s ceiling as a volume shooter.
- With Banchero (five games): 12.8 FGA (51.6 FG%), 17.8 PPG
- Without Banchero (11 games): 19.9 FGA (45.7 FG%), 24.4 PPG
As Banchero remains sidelined with an oblique injury, Wagner should continue to shoot enough to cash this number regularly.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 11/21/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.