Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.
The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a scorer for the home team.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.
Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-127)
With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.
Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.
So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.
- 5.2 RPG on the season
- Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
- 3.9 RPG in his past seven games
Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.
Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.
Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.
Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.
Quick pick
Poeltl over 15.5 points (-105): If Barnes suits up, that’ll take a bite out of everyone else’s scoring potential — but I still think Poeltl can hit this over.
Remember, Barnes is a do-it-all player for the Raptors who is comfortable facilitating, too. He led the team in assists last year (6.1/game) and sits at 6.0 APG so far this year.
Poeltl is a guy that Barnes and the rest of the Raptors should be feeding right now.
- 17.1 PPG on 60.8% shooting this season
- 16+ points in 8/15 games
- 25+ points in three straight games
The Timberwolves allow the 11th-most points per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros. Toronto should continue to lean on Poeltl, especially if Barnes needs an easing-in process.
Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.