Two AFC North teams heading in opposite directions meet on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) look to be Super Bowl contenders while the Cleveland Browns (2-8) are back in a familiar spot … the basement. But I’ll back the Browns to cover a teased-up spread at home alongside Jameis Winston and Jaylen Warren props.
Check out my Steelers vs. Browns same-game parlay predictions for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 21.
Steelers vs. Browns predictions
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Parlay: Browns +7.5 + Winston over 189.5 passing yards + Warren over 36.5 rushing yards (+340)
Browns +7.5 (-215): This has all the makings of a trap game for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers are coming off two massive wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Washington Commanders, taking those by a combined three points with a +3 turnover differential.
I can’t see a blowout coming on a short week, on the road, in inclement weather, against a divisional rival.
Cleveland’s season has been a disaster with Deshaun Watson flopping from the get-go and the defence regressing. But Jameis Winston has been an upgrade, throwing for north of 320 yards per game with six touchdowns to three interceptions.
These teams tend to play close games regardless of the circumstances, anyway.
Since the 2021 playoffs — when the Browns beat the Steelers 48-37 — Cleveland is 4-2 against this line versus Pittsburgh.
Other parlay picks
Winston over 189.5 passing yards (-265): NFLWeather.com is calling for a chilly night with 10-mph sustained winds, rain, and snow showers.
If that doesn’t sound like passing weather it’s because it’s not. But Winston can let it fly and this line should be well within reach regardless of the conditions.
As mentioned earlier, the veteran QB is averaging a healthy amount of yards behind some ridiculous passing volume:
- Week 11 vs. Saints: 30-of-46, 395 passing yards
- Week 9 vs. Chargers: 26-of-46, 235 passing yards
- Week 8 vs. Ravens 27-of-41, 334 passing yards
He’s attempted over 40 passes each time out, which speaks to how underwhelming Cleveland’s running game has been — even with Nick Chubb back in the mix.
The Steelers are likely going to stack the box and make Winston beat them with his arm. Even if it’s via dozens of checkdowns, I think he’ll have enough volume to clear this mark.
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Warren over 36.5 rushing yards (-112): Najee Harris is having a resurgent year as Pittsburgh’s bell-cow but Warren deserves some love, too.
The third-year back is 4-0 against this line in his last four while averaging 49.3 yards on 4.5 YPC.
Warren has game-breaking speed and ripped off a 74-yard touchdown run when he last played the Browns in 2023. That occurred during a five-game stretch where he averaged 85.2 rushing yards and went 5-0 against this line.
All that is to say he’s a capable back who had a slow start this season due to injury.
Cleveland can’t stop the run and allows the sixth-most yards per attempt (4.8) while ranking 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback. Warren should be involved plenty.
Picks made at 8:32 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.