After cashing my NFL parlay last weekend, I’m back at it again with another three-legger that’s fading a trio of awful teams.
The pregame narrative: Betting against the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders has been awfully profitable this year, and now you can fade all three in one place with my +235 parlay. I’ve teased down a trio of favourites’ spreads to build this ticket.
Check out my NFL Week 12 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.
NFL Week 12 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 12 betting markets.
Parlay: Texans -6.5 + Commanders -5.5 + Broncos -2.5 (+235)
Texans -6.5 (-167): Nico Collins didn’t have a smash week in his return from injury on Monday night, but Houston did put up 34 points. Collins’ presence means a ton for the Texans’ offensive ceiling.
So does home-field advantage, which the Texans have this Sunday.
Since last season, Houston has the fourth-best home record in the NFL (11-4). The team is +4.2 points per game against the spread in those matchups too, per Team Rankings.
I’ve shaved a couple of points off Sunday’s line, but that might not be necessary.
- Tennessee is 1-9 ATS this year and hasn’t covered since September
- The Titans have lost by 7+ points in 7/8 losses
- Houston went 2-0 ATS in this matchup last year
Other parlay picks
Commanders -5.5 (-239): The Washington Commanders have lost back-to-back one-score games against the Steelers and Eagles. But now they get a soft landing at home against one of the NFL’s emerging doormats.
Dallas is on quite a slide, losing five in a row straight up and ATS. It doesn’t help that Dak Prescott is out, but the defence is also an abomination.
- 31st in points allowed (29.3/game)
- 27th in yards allowed (365.7/game)
- 27+ points allowed in five straight
For three games with Cooper Rush as the primary quarterback, Dallas has been outscored by 58 points. The Cowboys have also lost by six-plus points in five straight.
Washington is 7-3-1 ATS, covering in four of five home games.
Last month, the Commanders beat up on the Browns and Panthers at Northwest Stadium, and the Cowboys are in that same tier now.
Go to full NFL Week 12 betting markets.
Broncos -2.5 (-209): The Denver Broncos are rolling, and after three straight weeks of playoff-calibre opponents they get to face a spiralling Raiders squad.
Las Vegas is on a six-game losing skid, and each of those losses has come by five or more points — including a 34-18 loss in Denver last month.
The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as favourites this year, winning each of those games by 14-plus points.
Bo Nix is playing with confidence (257.3 yards/game, 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his past four games), and a field goal margin of victory isn’t asking much.
NFL picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 11/20/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.