The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet for an AFC North battle on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh (8-2) and Cleveland (2-8) have opposite records but I’ll bank points with the home team. On the prop market, Jaylen Warren has value to clear a very modest rushing line.
Check out my Steelers vs. Browns best bets for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 21.
Steelers vs. Browns best bets
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Best Bet: Browns +4 (-130)
Pittsburgh is rolling but this screams “trap game” to me.
The Steelers have a special way of playing up to their opponents and playing down to their opponents — and I don’t expect them to coast by in a divisional matchup.
- Mike Tomlin’s group has won five straight but the last two were by a combined three points.
- Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown in Week 11 but won thanks to six Chris Boswell field goals.
- The Steelers rank 30th in red zone scoring percentage (44.44%).
Cleveland, meanwhile, has looked much better with Jameis Winston under centre, despite losing back-to-back games by two scores. Before that, it beat the Baltimore Ravens, 29-24, at home.
Everything would point to backing the red-hot Steelers ATS but Pittsburgh has lost two of its last four games as a favourite, according to Team Rankings, and had two tough losses last season as a large favourite (Week 13 vs. ARI, Week 14 vs. NE).
AFC North matchups are never a walk in the park and I expect the Browns to throw everything they have at the Steelers on Thursday.
Key stat: Cleveland is 2-1-1 against this line in its last four games against Pittsburgh.
Quick pick
Warren over 36.5 rushing yards (-118): Warren had a slow start to the year battling through injury but is starting to find his footing.
The third-year back is 4-0 against this line in his last four games while averaging 49.3 yards at 4.5 YPC.
Warren had at least nine carries in each of those games and should see an increased snap count to take the load of Najee Harris on a short week.
Cleveland is also horrible at stopping the run, allowing the sixth-most yards per attempt (4.8) while ranking 25th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.
Warren had 129 rushing yards in his last game against the Browns, including a 74-yard touchdown run. But even if you take that chunk play away he still comfortably cleared this line.
Picks made at 1:18 p.m. ET 11/19/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.