Luka Doncic, Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday make up my prop pick recommendations for tonight’s NBA Cup games.
The pregame narrative: Doncic on a combo market is my favourite play on Tuesday. I like Paul to contribute across the board and am backing Holiday to get points versus the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.
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Best bet: Doncic over 15.5 assists/rebounds (-127)
The biggest concern with this play is Doncic’s availability.
He’s officially questionable after missing the Dallas Mavericks’ last game with a knee issue. Assuming Doncic does play, this is a light line for the Dallas superstar.
Doncic’s numbers are down this season but we know his upside is as big as nearly anyone’s on this market.
- 2019-20 RPG/APG: 18.2
- 2020-21 RPG/APG: 16.6
- 2021-22 RPG/APG: 17.8
- 2022-23 RPG/APG: 16.6
- 2023-24 RPG/APG: 19.0
The nightly triple-double threat is down to 15.6 through 13 games, but that number is at 16.5 in November.
The New Orleans Pelicans are a mess and facing a likely blowout situation. But Doncic can put up monster lines in reduced minutes.
This situation doesn’t require a deep dive into the numbers for me. It’s a plus matchup against a bad team.
Doncic’s assist/rebound line has largely been set at 16.5 or 17.5, so I’m happy to jump in on the dip.
Key stat: Doncic is 5-3 against this line in November.
Quick picks
Paul over 20.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118): Sticking with the combo markets, I like Paul to fill the stat sheet versus the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Victor Wembanyama is doubtful with a knee injury, so there’s risk the San Antonio Spurs get run out of the building against OKC (11-3, first in the West).
But Paul has a great opportunity on the glass and ranks seventh in the NBA in assists per game (8.4).
The Thunder are last in the NBA in rebounding rate and surrender the most boards to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros.
Paul faced them in October, scoring 14 points while adding another 14 assists/rebounds.
The veteran point guard is 7-4 against this number in his last 11 games and is averaging 22.5 PRA on the season.
Holiday over 12.5 points (-106): The highest-profile game of the night has a robust 234.5 total as of early Tuesday afternoon.
There are big scoring options on both sides but one player who shouldn’t be slept on is the Boston Celtics’ Holiday.
Point guards have shredded the Cavaliers and Holiday has been clearing this number with regularity this month.
Surprisingly, considering their record and No. 7 defensive rating, no team allows more points or 3-pointers to opposing PGs.
Holiday might not be a big scorer on this Celtics team, but he averaged 19.1 per game over six seasons before joining Boston, demonstrating his ability to put the ball in the net.
He’s just shy of two triples per game and is 6-2 against this line in November.
Picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET on 11/19/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.