I’m fading one receptions prop and tailing another for this week’s Sunday Night Football prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Ja’Marr Chase exploded for 11 catches and 264 yards last week for the Cincinnati Bengals, but I like a plus-money fade for the NFL’s leading receiver. On the Los Angeles Chargers’ side, look for J.K. Dobbins to stay involved in the passing game.
Check out my Bengals vs. Chargers prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 17.
Bengals vs. Chargers prop picks
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Best Bet: Dobbins over 2.5 receptions (-127)
Last week’s return of Gus Edwards put Dobbins back into a timeshare, but I don’t think that’s a bad thing for his potential as a receiver.
While Edwards saw 10 carries (to Dobbins’ 15) in his first action since September, nothing changed in the receiving game.
- Dobbins was the only L.A. tailback targeted in Week 10
- Dobbins has far more targets this year (28) than the other RBs have combined (four)
So if the Chargers are throwing to a running back, they’re throwing to Dobbins. And I think he’ll have some chances in a game with serious scoring upside.
Sunday’s projected point total (47.5 points) is the highest of the season for the Chargers. That has a lot to do with the fact that the Bengals are offence-heavy and defence-optional.
Cincinnati ranks sixth in scoring offence and 26th in scoring defence. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Joe Burrow run up a big score for the Bengals, which would put L.A. into plenty of passing situations.
Dobbins has cashed this bet in six of nine games this year — including four of five when Edwards is playing.
If Edwards lightens the load a bit in the ground game, that should only make Dobbins more likely to see action as a receiver.
Key stat: Dobbins is averaging 3.1 targets per game and only has one drop this season.
Quick pick
Chase under 6.5 receptions (+106): How in my right mind can I fade Chase after last week’s spectacular performance?
Tee Higgins, who’s missed three straight games, practiced all week and is expected to play. His presence is great for the Bengals, but it likely means a reduction in targets for Chase.
Here’s the per-game volume Chase has seen with and without Higgins this year:
- With Higgins (five games): 7.4 targets, 5.8 catches
- Without Higgins (five games): 10.0 targets, 7.4 catches
The Chargers’ pass defence is solid, allowing the ninth-fewest passing yards and the third-fewest WR receptions this season.
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 11/16/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.