A very important matchup for AFC playoff implications is going down on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) are sitting in a wild-card spot, while the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) are lurking on the fringe. I like Cincy on an alt spread in my +370 SGP to go with prop bets on Joe Burrow, J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey.
Check out my Bengals vs. Chargers same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 17.
Bengals vs. Chargers predictions
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Parlay: Bengals +3.5 + Dobbins over 2.5 receptions + Burrow over 229.5 pass yards + McConkey over 39.5 rec. yards (+370)
Bengals +3.5 (-167): SoFi Stadium doesn’t have a reputation for being a tough environment for visiting teams, and I expect Cincinnati to turn in another solid road showing on Sunday.
The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road and 3-2 straight up. Both losses came by exactly one point (at Baltimore, at Kansas City).
All six of L.A.’s wins this season have come by at least a touchdown, but the Chargers have yet to defeat an above-.500 team.
Some hard luck has the Bengals on the wrong side of .500 too, but they should provide one of the Chargers’ toughest tests to date.
Cincinnati is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.
Other parlay picks
Dobbins over 2.5 receptions (-130): This is my favourite prop bet for Sunday Night Football, so I’m doubling down on it in the SGP.
When Gus Edwards returned for the Chargers last week, he immediately saw a notable workload out of the backfield. But he’s not a threat to steal targets from Dobbins.
This season, Dobbins has 28 targets. The rest of L.A.’s RB room has combined for four.
Dobbins is averaging 2.7 receptions per game this season and rarely blows by this number, but he’s still clearing it pretty reliably.
The first-year Charger has three or more catches in six of nine games — including four of five with Edwards active.
Go to Bengals vs. Chargers betting markets
Burrow over 229.5 passing yards (-335): If the Bengals were having a better season in the win column, you’d hear Burrow’s name more often in the MVP conversation.
The fifth-year quarterback paces the NFL in passing yards, completions, attempts and TDs. If only he could play defence, too.
Burrow is averaging 267.2 pass yards per game and has cashed this over in seven of 10.
The Chargers’ defence ranks No. 2 in EPA per dropback, which is part of the reason I teased Burrow’s total way down. But with a healthy tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, this shouldn’t be a problem for Cincy’s QB1.
McConkey over 39.5 receiving yards (-275): Though he’s rarely been explosive, McConkey has been impressively steady throughout his rookie season in L.A.
- The second-rounder from Georgia has 40+ yards in seven consecutive games
- McConkey is averaging 52.7 yards/game and is on pace for a 900-yard season
It usually takes some time for rookie receivers to build trust and chemistry, but McConkey has been a go-to guy in Jim Harbaugh’s system from the jump. He leads the Chargers in catches (37) and has turned that into a team-high 25 first downs.
Cincinnati’s defence ranks 26th in EPA per dropback and 23rd in pass yards allowed per game. I love this matchup for McConkey.
Picks made at 8:00 a.m. ET 11/17/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.