The Toronto Raptors have a tall task ahead as they battle the Boston Celtics on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto enters this contest as a significant underdog, but I’ll tease up the visiting squad to an exorbitant number. The total seems a little high, which is why I’m teasing it even higher and backing the under. Thirdly, I’m looking for Davion Mitchell to top a modest point total.
Check out my Raptors vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 16.
Raptors vs. Celtics predictions
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Parlay: Raptors +21.5 + Under 233.5 points + Mitchell over 8.5 points (+335)
Raptors +21.5 (-195): This game going horribly for Toronto is certainly a plausible outcome.
There’s a mountainous divide between these two teams in the standings. Boston has started its title defence very well, surging to a 10-3 record to open the campaign.
The expectations were low for Toronto entering this season, and it hasn’t done much to change the narrative. The Raptors own the league’s worst record at 2-11.
But we’re not looking for them to win — a cover will do the trick. And the Raps have been very good at keeping games within the number this season and against the Celtics in previous head-to-head matchups:
- The Raptors are 8-5 against the spread this season (t-5th)
- Raptors have covered this spread in 16 of their last 17 matchups against the Celtics
- Toronto has covered this spread in 12 of 13 contests this campaign
Boston’s average margin of victory is 10.8 points in 2024, significantly lower than what this spread entails. The Celtics can still dominate the Raptors and not cover this number.
SGP legs
Under 233.5 points (-182): Both teams will likely need to have solid offensive games to top this total but I don’t see that happening.
Sure, the Celtics should be able to produce a high total. They’re tied for second in points per game (121.3) and battle a Toronto defence that’s ceding the fourth-most points per game (119.1).
But the Raptors don’t have the offensive firepower to strike back and get this total over the number. Toronto is 19th in points per game and faces a Boston defence that’s surrendering the sixth-fewest points per contest (110.5).
The Celtics have been a solid under team this season, going under the total in seven of 13 games.
The Raptors, meanwhile, have gone below this number in five consecutive outings.
Mitchell over 8.5 points (-124): Backing a game under and a player prop over doesn’t correlate, but let me explain.
Here’s why I like Mitchell to clear this total:
- Mitchell is averaging 8.1 points per game
- Mitchell has played 30-plus minutes in six of his last eight games
- Boston is allowing the seventh-most points per game to point guards (25.92), according to Fantasy Pros
Mitchell’s usage — combined with the plus matchup — should result in an above-average scoring day.
Picks made at 10:56 a.m. on 11/16/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.