There are four NBA night games on Saturday, and I’ve got a prop bet from three of them.
The pregame narrative: Anthony Davis faces a tough rebounding matchup tonight and I’m taking the under on his total. Elsewhere, I like Kyrie Irving to stay hot as a scorer and for John Collins to make the most of an outsized opportunity with the Utah Jazz.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 16.
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Best bet: Irving over 22.5 points (-120)
Can we get some more looks for Irving, please?
The 14th-year guard is in a microwave right now, and his ultra-efficient shooting should encourage his Dallas Mavericks teammates to find him more often.
- 54.5% FG rate (career-high)
- 17.4 FG attempts/game (lowest since 2015-16)
Irving is currently shooting better than 50.0% from 3-point land, and obviously that won’t last. But he should continue to strike while the iron is blazing hot.
Keep in mind that Irving has been a dazzling scorer for a long, long time. A 22.5-point line falls below his scoring average in each of the past nine seasons.
And it’s not as if Irving’s tenure in Dallas has prompted a fall-off in production. Over two-plus seasons with the Mavs, he’s scored 25.9 PPG on 19.2 shots.
All of that is to say, Irving looks like a great bet at this number. Get him the ball a bit more and watch what he does with it.
Irving only had 15 points against the San Antonio Spurs (tonight’s opponent) in the season opener, but that was on an uncharacteristically low minutes count.
Last year, he averaged 28.0 PPG against the Spurs and hit this over in two of three games.
Key stat: Irving has cashed this bet in six of his past nine games (26.7 PPG) while shooting 58.6% from the floor.
Quick picks
Davis under 12.5 rebounds (-130): On a back-to-back, Davis isn’t in his best position tonight to rack up rebounds.
Davis’ Los Angeles Lakers face the New Orleans Pelicans, who’ve allowed the third-fewest rebounds per game to opponents.
New Orleans hasn’t even allowed a player to record 10-plus rebounds in any of its past four games.
That has a lot to do with New Orleans playing at the second-slowest pace (97.1 possessions/game), per NBA.com. But hey, whatever works to suppress Davis’ rebounding opportunities.
Davis, who’s averaging 10.9 RPG this season, has gone under 12.5 rebounds in five of his past six games.
Collins over 26.5 points/rebounds (-108): Collins has primarily come off the bench so far this year for the Jazz, but injuries have pushed him into back-to-back starting lineups — and he’s taken advantage.
On Tuesday, Collins finished with 29 points and 10 rebounds in a starting role against Phoenix. Two days later, he racked up 28 points and nine rebounds against Dallas.
Utah centre Walker Kessler is out, and power forward Lauri Markkanen is questionable. I think the 6-foot-9 Collins will draw into the starting frontcourt again, which makes this line look extremely attainable.
In November, Collins has averaged 21.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG despite coming off the bench in four of six games.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 11/16/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.