Josh Allen has scored in back-to-back games against the Kansas City Chiefs, and I’m calling on him to find the end zone again in Week 11.
The pregame narrative: Allen is my favourite anytime touchdown scorer of the week, but he’s not the only player I’m targeting at plus money. In the 1 p.m window, look out for Brock Bowers and Demarcus Robinson.
Check out the best NFL Week 11 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 11 TD picks
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Best bet: Allen anytime TD (+120)
As some of Allen’s primary red zone targets fall away, the man under centre is looking better and better as an option to score.
- Keon Coleman, who leads the team in red zone targets (nine), is out.
- Dalton Kincaid, who’s second in red zone targets (eight), is also out.
James Cook is a capable running back in the red zone, but he doesn’t possess quite the same battering ram qualities of the 6-foot-5, 237-pound Allen.
Last week, Allen rumbled for 50 yards and a TD on eight carries against the Indianapolis Colts. He matched a season-high with five red zone rushes in that game.
Allen now has 19 red zone rush attempts this season, per Rotowire, which equates to 1.9 per game. With Coleman out and Kincaid trending that way, I think we’ll see at least that much volume for Allen near the end zone.
I try not to get wrapped up in narrative-based arguments, but Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Bills game should feel like a playoff game. After all, the AFC’s No. 1 seed is still very much up for grabs.
With that in mind, expect Allen to put his body on the line for his team. In five games against Kansas City since 2021, Allen has averaged 11.2 carries and scored four TDs.
Key stat: Allen has at least one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line in four of his past five games.
Quick picks
Robinson anytime TD (+200): Robinson isn’t the first Los Angeles Ram you think of as a receiving weapon. Or the second. But at this price, he’s an interesting option to score.
Robinson has big-play ability, collecting four receptions of 20-plus yards in the past three games alone. And his recent usage in the red zone has my attention.
- Targeted inside the five-yard line in back-to-back weeks
- Targeted inside the 10-yard line in four of his past five games
Since Week 8, which is when both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup, Robinson leads the Rams with four red zone targets.
That isn’t a ton, obviously, but it’s enough in a small sample for the veteran receiver to have some value.
Bowers anytime TD (+175): Usually, my preference when making TD picks is to look for guys who see ample targets in the red zone. For some reason, that hasn’t been the case with Bowers.
The stellar rookie tight end leads the Raiders in targets (73), catches (57) and yards (580) … but only seven of his targets have come in the red zone.
Since Davante Adams’ departure, though, it’s not like anyone else has stepped up as a go-to red zone target for the Las Vegas Raiders. So it’s still possible for Bowers to fill that void.
His six red zone targets since Week 5 are twice as many as any other Vegas pass-catcher.
And with 9.8 total targets per game in that span, I’m just hoping his overall involvement will translate to something good near the goal line.
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 11/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.