Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen doesn’t get old and we’re treated to another showdown this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.
The pregame narrative: I expect Allen to have an impact as a runner and help lead his Bills to victory at home. This three-leg, +420 SGP also includes a receiving prop on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 11 below.
Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bills moneyline + Allen over 32.5 rushing yards + Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (+420)
Bills moneyline (-130): The playoff agonies are what people remember most, but it hasn’t been all heartache for the Bills when they face the Chiefs.
Buffalo is 3-0 straight up — and ATS — in its past three regular-season matchups against Kansas City.
That might not salve any wounds for Bills fans, but it’s a reminder that this isn’t a one-sided rivalry in the Allen/Mahomes era.
This season, despite the Chiefs’ 9-0 record, the Bills (8-2) have often looked like a better overall team.
- Buffalo: 3rd in offensive EPA/play, 10th in defensive EPA/play, +97 point differential
- Kansas City: 11th in offensive EPA/play, 11th in defensive EPA/play, +58 point differential
Buffalo is 19-4 at home since the start of the 2022 season. I expect another win for the Bills on Sunday.
Other parlay picks
Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-118): This feels like a good week to see an outsized rushing effort from Allen.
Why? For one thing, his two leading red zone targets (Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid) were ruled out. Also, Allen has been known to run wild against Kansas City.
In five matchups against the Chiefs since 2021 — including playoffs — here’s what Allen has accomplished on the ground:
- 11.2 rush attempts/game
- 52.6 rush yards/game
- 4 TDs
Allen’s low-water mark in those games was 32 rush yards (twice). He had 10-plus attempts in each game.
Quarterback rushing stats can be unpredictable, but five games against one opponent in a three-season span is a healthy sample.
After turning eight carries into 50 yards last week, look for Allen to stay involved against a familiar foe.
Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (-113): Folks, here comes Travis Kelce.
After just 69 total receiving yards through his first three games, Kelce has 60-plus yards in five of his past six. And he’s doing his best work since Week 8.
- 12+ targets in three straight games
- 8+ catches in three straight games
- 84.7 yards/game
It’s no coincidence that Week 8 is when DeAndre Hopkins debuted with the Chiefs.
His presence has given defences another serious threat to worry about — leaving Kelce with a greater sum of winnable matchups.
Over the previous three seasons, Kelce went 4-1 against this receiving yards total when facing the Bills. He averaged 83.8 yards/game in those matchups on 9.0 targets.
Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 11/15/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.