The Pittsburgh Steelers are the backbone of last week’s winning NFL parlay picks, and they’re worth putting back on your ticket for Week 11.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens in one of the most compelling matchups of the week, and I like the home side to cover the spread. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers to beat a longtime rival and for the New England Patriots to cover an alt spread at home.
Check out my NFL Week 11 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.
NFL Week 11 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 11 betting markets.
Parlay: Steelers +3.5 + Packers moneyline + Patriots +7.5 (+307)
Steelers +3.5 (-118): Very few teams can say they have the blueprint to stop Lamar Jackson, but Pittsburgh might be one of them.
Jackson, who is favoured to win his third NFL MVP this season, has a 66.8 QB rating and a 4:7 TD-to-INT ratio in four career starts against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is on a four-game ATS win streak and has covered this number in all nine of its games this season. Also, the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in the previous three seasons against the Ravens.
Russell Wilson has Pittsburgh rolling right now, and the team is typically strong in a spot like this. The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2021, per Team Rankings.
Other parlay picks
Packers moneyline (-250): Fresh off a bye, the Packers get to face a spiralling division foe that has been under their thumb for a long, long time.
Green Bay is 15-1 against the Chicago Bears in the past eight seasons, which includes a pair of wins with Jordan Love under centre last season. Love had 561 passing yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions in last year’s matchups.
The Bears have lost three games in a row and haven’t scored a touchdown since Week 8. That ineptitude led to the ouster of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this past week.
Chicago is 4-1 in home/neutral site games, but those opponents have a combined record of 14-34 (.292). Green Bay, at 6-3, poses a much tougher challenge.
Patriots +7.5 (-177): After dunking on the Bears, I don’t want to overstate how impressive New England’s 19-3 win in Chicago was last week. But it does give me some faith that the Pats can cover this alt line.
New England has covered this number in six of 10 games — including each of its past three.
I’m not calling for an upset here, as I think the Los Angeles Rams can do enough to scratch out a win. But L.A. is travelling across the country on a short week, which doesn’t help.
The Rams (4-5) have only covered a -7.5 spread in one of nine games. After L.A. lost as a home favourite against an iffy Miami Dolphins squad on Monday, I’m not convinced that the team will pull off a comfortable win in Foxborough.
NFL picks made at 11:55 a.m. on 11/14/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.