The top spot in the NFC East is up for grabs on Thursday Night Football as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: Brian Robinson Jr. returns to the backfield for the Commanders, and I like his chances of clearing a rather modest yardage total. On the other side, Jalen Hurts is coming off a strong effort as a runner and looks like a solid bet to make noise in the ground game, too.
Check out my Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 14.
Commanders vs. Eagles prop picks
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Best Bet: Robinson over 44.5 rushing yards (-118)
Betting on a player who’s coming off an injury-related absence can be tricky. But I see some positives in Robinson’s situation.
- Robinson (hamstring) practiced all week, logging limited sessions on Monday and Tuesday before turning in a full practice yesterday.
- He missed a game earlier this season due to a knee injury, and in his return, Robinson rushed for 71 yards on 12 carries.
Initially, Robinson wasn’t expected to miss any time due to his hamstring issue. But the Commanders made him a late scratch in Week 9 (at Giants) and held him out last Sunday against the Steelers.
Now, while his teammates grind through a short week, Robinson should be as fresh and rested as anyone on the field. He’s been the Commanders’ best tailback when healthy, so they shouldn’t be shy about giving him touches.
Aside from the Week 5 matchup in which he sustained a knee injury, Robinson has seen 12-plus carries in every game. If that type of workload comes his way again, 45-plus rushing yards should be well within reach.
Washington’s offensive identity is built on its run game.
Having a dual-threat quarterback like Jayden Daniels certainly doesn’t hurt, as his ability to tuck and run gives defences an extra element to worry about.
The Commanders rank fifth in the NFL in run play percentage (50.5%), per Team Rankings. Against an Eagles team that ranks a mediocre 13th in yards allowed per rush (4.4), I think Robinson will have enough volume to cash this bet.
Key stat: Robinson is averaging 65.9 rush yards per game on a career-high 4.6 yards per attempt.
Quick pick
Hurts over 39.5 rushing yards (-122): Daniel Jones and Lamar Jackson have both cleared the 40-rushing-yard mark against the Commanders this season, and I think Jalen Hurts will be next up.
Some folks were concerned last week about a possible ankle injury for Hurts. But he quelled those concerns easily by rushing seven times for 56 yards and two touchdowns.
Hurts has rushed at least seven times in all nine games this season, which gives him a solid rushing floor. He’s averaging 42.0 yards on 10.3 carries per game.
The Commanders have one of the most suspect run defences in the NFL. They allow 4.9 yards/rush (29th in the NFL) and rank 27th in defensive EPA per rush, per RBSDM.com.
Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/14/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.