The Pittsburgh Steelers headline these NFL Week 11 upset picks.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh hosts the Baltimore Ravens for AFC North supremacy and I like it to win as a home underdog. Elsewhere, I like the Cincinnati Bengals to win on Sunday Night Football.
Check out these NFL Week 11 upset picks.
NFL Week 11 upset picks
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Best bet: Steelers moneyline (+150)
Mike Tomlin has had the upper hand in these divisional dogfights.
Pittsburgh is 7-1 against Baltimore over the last four seasons and while none of those games were decided by more than a score, Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks were Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and a washed-up Ben Roethlisberger.
To be fair, Lamar Jackson only played in three of those games — but he lost all of them.
The reigning MVP is off to another torrid start but I can’t overlook his poor performances against Pittsburgh. In six games, Lamar is 2-4 with a 66.9 passer rating and four touchdowns to seven interceptions.
Now that the Steelers have a competent QB under centre I expect them to keep dominating the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7 while averaging 30.3 points and 382.3 yards per game. For context, that would rank third and fourth among all teams if sustained for the whole season.
Baltimore is giving up the eighth-most points (25.3) and sixth-most yards (367.9) per game so expect Russ to keep cooking.
Pittsburgh’s defence, meanwhile, allows the second-fewest points (16.2) and eighth-fewest yards (302.7) per game.
Key stat: The Steelers went 6-2 in AFC North games last year (2-0 vs. Ravens).
Week 11 upset predictions
Bengals (+100): I’m splitting hairs by giving out the Bengals (+1.5) as an upset pick. But hey, they’re a dog and I think they’ll win.
Cincinnati came oh-so-close to toppling Baltimore on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 but didn’t and now faces a must-win against the surging Los Angeles Chargers.
The Bengals are putting up boatloads of points but a porous defence has stopped them from reaching their full potential.
Los Angeles’ defence has been elite and I can’t diminish that but I think Joe Burrow’s elite playmaking will win out against a team with no impressive wins on its ledger.
The 6-3 Chargers have beaten the Titans, Browns, Saints, Panthers, Raiders and Broncos while losing to the Steelers, Cardinals and Chiefs.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.